Today's Free Picks for
Posted on May 22 at 11:15 AM EST
NFL Week 1 - Sunday, September 9, 2018
1:00 PM EST. Before we get into the Patriots, let us remind you that Deshaun Watson was likely going to be the NFL’s MVP last year or at the very least in the conversation had he not been injured in Week 7 v Seattle. Watson was to the Texans what Aaron Rodgers was to the Packers. Up to that point, we were all just beginning to marvel at Watson’s on-field brilliance. Up to that point, the Texans were 3-3 with a three-point loss in New England (36-33) in a game they should have won, a 42-34 loss to K.C. two weeks later and finally, that fateful 34-31 loss to Seattle that ended Watson’s year. Houston could and probably should have won all three of those games. Watson had led the Texans to a 57-14 shellacking over the Titans and a similar beat down of the Brownies. Houston’s offense was humming when Watson was piloting it. After his injury, the Texans went 1-9 to close out the year with only victory occuring against Arizona. With Houston ending up with a 4-12 record and the Patriots being who they are, this number does not reflect the positive impact nor the value of Deshaun Watson. Additionally, this market is also largely ignoring the problems for the aging Patriots. We’ll now look to take advantage of both.
This is the year that the Patriots demise likely begins. First, and it is well documented, that Bill Belichick was absolutely furious that owner Robert Kraft made him trade Jimmy Garoppolo. Everybody downplayed it but multiple published reports, from even those inside and around the Patriots, said it ticked Belichick off and Kraft sided with Tom Brady by saying, “Look at Tom’s numbers Bill, Tom has won us Super Bowls and is still amazing”. In response, here is what Belichick has done and it’s not a coincidence when you consider that Brady and Belichick have a published and well-documented festering and fracturing issue (the benching of Malcolm Butler in the Super Bowl). Belichick has let Brady’s #1 running back go, Dion Lewis, his #1 deep threat is now a Ram, Brandin Cooks, his backside protector, Nate Solder is now gone, Cameron Fleming, who was the starting right tackle at the end of the year is also gone and because Julian Edelman was out, Brady’s number one playoff receiver, Danny Amendola is history also. Five key offensive players have all been allowed to walk out the door. Thus, Tom Brady goes into this year at the age of 40, with his two best offensive pieces being 32-year-old Julian Edelman off ACL surgery and the not physically reliable Rob Gronkowski. By the way, Gronk and Belichick are feuding too. Brady has never had a football team in which he had to pull it more than he will this year and Belichick has set it up that way to prove a point to his owner. The three most important people in the organization are not cohesive right now and you can add Gronk to make it four. So many question marks, a bad Super Bowl, an aging QB and a bite of your nose to spite your face coach running the show. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is in line to become the next big star in this league and the Houston Texans are in line to become hugely relevant. Man, are the Patriots overvalued here.
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Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Houston +7 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)