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+10 -110 +10 -110  +10 -110 SIA +10 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

North Texas +10 over SMU

Apogee Stadium - Denton, TX

Streaming: CBS Sports Network

7:30 PM EST. These two teams have played each other every season since 2014. The Mustangs of SMU have won the last three of those games and are 6-2 overall. Those three wins over the last three years have not been close. Last season, it was 35-12 SMU. In 2020, it was 65-35 and in 2019, it was 49-27. You get the point. The Mustangs destroy The Mean Green every year like clockwork.

SMU went 8-4 last season, but just 4-4 in American conference play, which had former coach Sonny Dykes running for greener pastures at TCU. How these Mustangs will handle the abandonment and change to new coach Rhett Lashlee remains to be seen, but there is always a transition period that takes place both on and off teh field.

The Mustangs return quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but he lost the deep threat talent that led him to a 3600-yard passing season, as Danny Gray and Reggie Roberson Jr. both declared for the draft. Transfers Beau Corrales from North Carolina and Jake Bailey from Rice will have big shoes to fill.

One of the big reasons we like North Texas here is that Mean Green already has a game under their belts after thumping UTEP 31-13 in Week 0. North Texas was a -1½ road favorite and played a near flawless game. Quarterback Austin Aune was good for 236 yards passing and three majors.

When one gets their asses kicked year in and year out by the same team, one can get sick of that result. Mean Green should not be lacking in motivation here after the Mustangs recent domination over them. Coach Seth Littrell paid his dues in FBS for years, learning the Air Raid system under Mike Leach, Larry Fedora and Dykes. Mean Green has posted top-20 scoring offenses under Littrell and will be looking to do it again in 2022.

Last season when these two teams played, the Mustangs were 22½-point favorites. In 2020, they were 14½-point chalk. This season, that number is down to single digits, which fgures to be very enticing to the unsuspecting. One of the biggest mistakes handicappers face is dealing with recency bias. This game screams of if. Oddsmakers trust this is the best chance the Mean Green have to win this rivalry game since 2019, and we couldn’t agree more. Scoop up the inflated points, but don’t be surprised if Mean Green goes 2-0.