Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
CFP Semifinal - Orange Bowl - Miami Gardens, FL
Michigan +7½ over Georgia
7:30 PM EST. Through 12 games, Georgia had a historically great defense. In fact, their defense was so good that the oddsmakers made them a -6 or -6½-point favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship game. One would have to go back, what, 20 years, 30 years to find the last time the Tide was taking back nearly a converted TD. Feeling disrespected perhaps, the Tide came with a plan and left with a victory after scoring 41 points and going off for 421 yards through the air. The Tide did not allow the Dawgs a single sack.
Indeed, the Bulldogs put up a ton of points this year and had their fair share of blowouts. It seemed like every week the Dawgs were winning by 40 points or thereabouts. A closer look shows that they played a slew of very weak defenses, ran them over, controlled the line of scrimmage and ran up the score. We understand that teams can only play what is put in front of them but the blueprint to beat Georgia was drawn up and it’s not the most difficult script to follow.
Michigan has not performed well in big games for close to two decades. Every time the market expects this team to perform, they disappoint in a big way so market trust on them is not high. However, this is a different Michigan team than years past. They passed their first real test this year when they torched Ohio State 42-27. The following week in one of the biggest letdown spots of the year, Michigan destroyed Iowa, 42-3. Don’t ignore the focus it took to beat Iowa the week after one of the biggest celebrations in Wolverines history after they beat OSU. One would be hard pressed to find a team that played better than Michigan in the final three weeks of the regular season.
This is an evenly matched battle between two teams that are almost mirror images of one another. They are ball control offenses with great defenses, thus, this is very likely going to be a low scoring affair that figures to come down to the wire. Michigan got a monkey off their back when they beat Ohio State. Georgia still has a monkey on its back because they lost again to Alabama, In that regard, give an intangible edge to Michigan's state of mind or confidence level. However, as a result of the Dawgs blowing out opponents regularly this year combined with Michigan’s poor showings in big games over the last two decades, the market is reluctant to get behind the underdog here. We, on the other hand, are not, as we see this as a true 50/50 proposition but it is not priced as such. Big overlay.
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Michigan +7½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)