Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 PM EST.
Texas Tech +10 over Mississippi State
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Stadium – Memphis, TN
6:45 PM EST. The AutoZone Liberty Bowl has in fact been renamed the “Mike Leach Bowl”, at least that’s what many media sources argue should be the case, as the prevailing plot-line is Mississippi State Head Coach Mike Leach facing off with one of the former schools he coached at.
Way back in December of 2009, Texas Tech fired Mike Leach after issues involving concussions and player safety. Leach moved on to Washington St. before landing at Mississippi State. At the time, Leach perceived it as a great injustice and that’s what the media is selling here. We don’t know if Leach holds a grudge, after all, he was fired 12 years ago, but what we do know is that the market is greatly influenced by all the bullshit fodder the media is spewing out. Yeah, State can win this game going away but if you get behind them, you will pay a big premium to do so.
Then there is the Red Raider program as well. You will hear that the coaching situation has been in tatters all season after the Matt Wells experiment didn’t provide the results that they were looking for. Since the firing of Wells, TTU has turned to Sonny Cumbie (their offensive coordinator) to serve as the interim head coach but he will be moving on in 2022 to skipper Louisiana Tech. However, despite taking the job with another set of Bulldogs, Cumbie is coming back to coach this game, which says to us that the Liberty Bowl is a contest that the Red Raiders will be showing up to with the aspiration of bringing their A-Game.
Finally, can one trust Donovan Smith as the signal caller as opposed to the Red Raider incumbent starter Henry Columbi? Smith’s play against Baylor in Texas Tech’s season finale would suggest that Texas Tech has a quarterback that can certainly rise to the occasion, as he went tit-for-tat with Baylor Big 12 Championship Hero Blake Shapen in their rivalry game to close out the 2021 regular season. Texas Tech actually rallied against Baylor and could have even drawn level until a missed field goal attempt allowed the Bears to escape with a 27-24 win.
Backing the Bulldogs here is not “going with the best of it”. A wager on Mississippi State here is doing so at a bad number and given the fact that almost no one is giving the Red Raiders a chance, we have to query as to why the Red Raiders weren’t given more points at open.
We could give you 40 reasons to bet Mississippi State here. The arguments for getting behind them seem endless, which is precisely the point. Try and find a publication or analyst that is backing the underdog plus the points and you would be hard-pressed to do so. From being more motivated, to being vastly more talented to the Mike Leach revenge tour, to State’s Air Raid attack, the narratives to support the Bulldogs are never-ending but those same narratives are precisely the reason why we’re getting a handful of inflated points. Texas Tech is essentially a free-rolling underdog and we know how potent those sides can be.
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Texas Tech +10 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)