Ball State vs Georgia St
Ball State +6 -104 over Georgia St

Pinnacle +6 -104 BET365 +6 -110 SportInteraction +6 -105 BetOnline +6 -108 Bookmaker +6

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

Raycom Camellia Bowl -Cramton Bowl – Montgomery, AL 
Streaming: ESPN

Ball State +6 -104 over Georgia State

2:30 PM EST. Experts will savor in Georgia State’s eighth-ranked rushing attack against a Ball State defense that gives up 169.8 yards per game on the ground (92nd overall) but these numbers are a bit deceiving because Ball State’s defense had to face Army (an option specialist), Penn State, Toledo, and Central Michigan, which accounted for much of the damage the Cards took against the run. All four of these teams incidentally qualified for bowl games. 


Georgia State’s “display of rushing supremacy” where it substantially outrushed opponents primarily came at the expense of UL Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Troy, and Charlotte. None of these teams found their way to the postseason while all of them were torched on the ground. The Panthers did manage to put up 267 rushing yards against Auburn in September but the Tigers were in a quintessential sandwich spot, coming off a bitter road loss at Penn State while they had a meeting with LSU in Death Valley on the horizon. 


We could break down the X’s and O’s but that wouldn’t get us anywhere since there is otherwise nothing else that sticks out about either of these two sides. Let’s call it what it is, a 50/50 proposition that isn’t priced as such. 


Georgia State has emerged as a market darling that the efficient market has sunk their teeth into from the moment the cashiers drew up their shutters. The Panthers opened as a 3½-point choice and very quickly that number accelerated upward to the price you see here. On top of that, we have a Georgia State side that has been cashing tickets the entire season, going 8-2 against the number in its final 10 games and 6-1 in their final seven while Ball State has bled units going 4-8 against the spread this year.



What we have here is inflated points on top of inflated points and we also like the “played hard to get here” angle. In other words, Ball State had to beat Buffalo in the final game of the regular season to qualify for a Bowl game. They did that in a very impressive 20-3 victory. These 6-6 teams have been live as hell ever since six-win teams began qualifying back in 2013 (or maybe 2014) for years and we’re going to trust that this one has a chip on its shoulder too.


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Our Pick

Ball State +6 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)