Missouri vs Army
Missouri +6 -102 over Army

Pinnacle +6½ -102  BET365 +6½ -105 SportInteraction +6½ -105 BetOnlin+6½  Bookmaker +6½ -108 

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

Missouri +6½ over Army

Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

8:00 PM EST. We are usually very reluctant to get behind a team that is unfamiliar with the triple option offense that Army runs. It’s a unique animal, and lack of familiarity usually spells doom for opposing defenses. Mizzou is absolutely unfamiliar with defending it so we want to make you aware of that before you invest. However, we must point out that the oddsmakers are fully aware of this distinct advantage that Army has, yet they were not in the least bit reluctant to hang a small number up before the efficient market got a hold of it. Army opened at -3 and are now favored by more than twice that.

You’ll also hear how the Tigers are one of the worst teams in the country against the run (124th overall) and that the Army option attack (2nd in the US in rushing yards per game) will rip through them like fresh cotton candy off the cone. However, Mizzou’s defense got tremendously better down the backstretch, holding Georgia to 163 yards on the ground (an achievement considering the Dawgs can go for over 250 any given day) and following that up by giving up just 150 total yards on the ground against both South Carolina and Florida (who once was a top-10 rushing team this season in its own right). While Mizzou fell against Arkansas to close out their 2021 regular season in a 17-point defeat, Mizzou had in fact outrushed the Hogs by 88 yards.

In terms of Strength of Schedule, well it’s not close, as the Tigers battled ranked sides on a regular basis, for example Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, or even the #1 team in the country throughout the regular season in Georgia. Meanwhile Army beats up on teams like Georgia State, UMass, Bucknell, and UConn for instance. Furthermore, Mizzou only covered three times in 12 games this year, which is another market influence that assures us that we are getting more points than we should be. Let us not forget that Army lost to Navy who was 3-8 and now they are still favored against a SEC by almost a full TD.

Being ignored is the impact of Army’s loss to Navy on December 11th. That game was Army’s SuperBowl. The Black Knights have one goal every year and one goal only. That goal is to prepare for and beat Navy and take home the Commander-in-Chief Trophy in the process. We’re not going to say that Army doesn’t care about this game but they are on a mental low after losing to Navy in its last game. It’s equivalent to the Super Bowl loser playing another game two weeks after losing the Super Bowl.

The Tigers do not have a lot of market credibility coming into this contest. They had a horrible year and were routinely blown out. However, they also had some strong performances, especially in the last three weeks of the year with wins over Florida and South Carolina before falling to Arkansas. Army is a great underdog because of their ability to run and limit the opposition’s possessions. However, as an inflated-priced favorite in an unfavorable spot and with the number being bet up all week, all the value is on the underdog Tigers here. We’re not close to being convinced that Army is worthy of this billing.    

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Our Pick

Missouri +6 -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

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