Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
Kent State +3½ -105 over Wyoming
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl -Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID
3:30 PM EST. What you’re going to read and hear about regarding this game is a bunch of meaningless trends and endless filler that favors Wyoming so allow us to go over this one more time for all new readers to this space. What happened years ago has zero impact on what is going to happen here. If Wyoming wins and covers, it’s because that’s how the chips fell and not because Wyoming is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six bowl games. A game from six years ago or seven or 10 or 15 or 20 or four means jack. It is completely absurd to think or to be influenced otherwise but touts will use this useless fodder to support their choice. Bottom line is that with thousands and thousands of games played throughout the years, trends will develop and some will stick out more than others. Do not be influenced even one iota by utterly useless trends.
You may also read that the Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven stints as an underdog. You may also hear/read that the Mountain West is presently undefeated in the bowl season while the MAC is 1-2 in bowl games. Very quickly, the sentiment behind this contest is pulling meaningless results out of thin air to justify a play on Wyoming. Arguments will be furthered for the ‘Boys that they have the better defense, journeyed a shorter distance, and are the better cold weather team. At least that’s current and has some validity but it’s still not going to influence our choice.
Look, we’re trying to find reasons to support the Golden Flashes but it’s not easy. We can find many reasons to back Wyoming and one of them is that Wyoming is familiar with this unique field while Kent State will travel 1800 miles to get here. KSU also allowed over 200 rushing yards six times while Wyoming ran for 254 yards per game over their last five games of the season. Perhaps the most glaring is that Wyoming played two MAC teams this year, NIU and Ball State and went 2-0 against that duo while outscoring them 95-55.
Thing is, when Wyoming beat NIU and Ball St, it was way back in early September. This is a Wyoming team that lost outright to New Mexico, were crushed by Hawaii, beat a horrible UConn team by two points and also lost to San Jose State. This is a Wyoming offense that usually can’t move five yards and with a month off, it’s difficult to trust them to be sharp. Incidentally, Kent State beat NIU also.
Kent State’s out of conference schedule included games against Iowa, Maryland and Texas A&M. Two of those teams were ranked inside the Top-10 at one point this year. The Golden Flashes may not have many impressive wins this year but they certainly don’t have the disturbing losses that Wyoming has. We searched far and wide to find some “experts” that are picking Kent State and frankly, we found none. The entire betting community is leaning big to the chalk here and thus, we have to wonder why Wyoming isn’t a bigger favorite. Lots of red flags surrounding playing the favorite, thus as contrarian bettors, we’re going to take the points and will not be a bit surprised if Kent State wins this one rather handily. Wyoming is not a good football team.
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Kent State +3½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)