Pinnacle +117 BET365 +110 SportInteraction +110 BetOnline +110 Bookmaker +110

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

PENN STATE +117 over Michigan

Beaver Stadium – University Park, PA

Streaming: FOX

12:00 PM EST. The Nittany Lions opened initially as a one-point choice but very quickly the efficient market jumped all over the Wolverines and now we have the favorite priced as an underdog. This in itself could be a sound reason to get behind PSU but when we evaluate the market’s assessment of both sides, it is evident that the Wolverines will be looked upon more favorably. Michigan comes in as the #6 ranked team in the country while Penn State has lost three games.

One could argue that Michigan would be sitting in the top-two of the College Football Playoff standings had it not blown a 16-point lead in East Lansing two weeks ago against Michigan State. Be that as it may, Michigan’s sole defeat came in a four-point loss against a team ranked next to it in the CFP polls (Michigan State is #7). Outside of that, Michigan has won every game, trampled many of these opponents it won against in its travels, and has been cashing at will throughout 2021 (going 7-2 ATS on the year).

With the “must-win” angle in play to boot, as the Wolverines are very much in the thick of things with regard to the B1G or even a College Football Playoff berth, the market is scoffing up this overused narrative to a large degree. On the flipside, many would surmise that Penn State has nothing left to play for with three losses but that, too, is a bit absurd. Nothing would please the Nittany Lions more than knocking Michigan off its perch. Penn State could easily be undefeated, as their losses include a nine-OT defeat against Illinois, a 23-20 defeat at Iowa where they blew a lead in the fourth quarter, and most recently a nine-point loss against Ohio State two weeks ago. Penn State actually outplayed Ohio State in terms of total yardage and first downs but turnovers and in-game variance served as the difference maker. margin.

One would be hard-pressed to find a group of individuals (see every panel on TV) outside of Happy Valley that is picking Penn State to win here and we get it. Penn State’s win over Maryland last week was not pretty, as the Terps and Nittany Lions were level at 14-14 in the 4th quarter and a loss to Illinois hasn’t stopped resounding. Still, we don’t trust Jim Harbaugh in big games and while Michigan has the better record, there’s not a lot of evidence that suggests they’re the better team. The defenses are top-10 units but we must give Sean Clifford an edge over Cade McNamara in big game experience. It’ll be nuts in Happy Valley today so aside from Penn State not being inferior, we have to give them at least a couple of points for home-field advantage. This is truly a case of the market putting far too much emphasis on results and we therefore must step in and play the value.

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