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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

Florida Intl +10½ over MID TENN ST.

Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium – Murfreesboro, TN

Streaming: ESPNU

3:30 PM EST. FIU v MTSU pays the same as Penn State or Michigan but this one has very little fan interest and we may have caught a great price on the underdog in this battle of dregs. Florida International’s only win this season came against an FCS side from Old Brookville, NY (Long Island University) and that is a horrible look while MTSU is a respectable 4-5. Once again we’ll point to misleading records influencing the market and the price more than anything else.

We now ask, “What has MTSU done to gain so much respect? MTSU’s defeats came against Southern Mississippi (a dreg), UConn (a bigger dreg), Monmouth (an FCS side), and the most notable, a 34-28 win hosting Marshall on October 2nd, 2021 as an 11-point underdog. However, the 2021 edition of Marshall is not the Thundering Herd of years past. Nevertheless, against Marshall, a common opponent, FIU lost 38-0.

In the series, the Blue Raiders have won seven of the last nine. The Home Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and FIU, most notably, is 2-5 ATS in the last seven in Murfreesboro where the Raiders are known for having a mysterious home field edge. MTSU’s 3-0 home record this season, which includes Marshall, accentuates this mystique. MTSU was successful the three times it was favored this season (3-0 both straight up and ATS) against Monmouth (-8.5), at UConn (-13.5), and hosting Southern Miss two weeks ago when it was a 12½-point choice. All three of these victories were blowout wins where the Blue Raiders crushed the number. Situationally speaking, MTSU is asked to lay less points to a team that is comparable to the aforementioned sides and to the unsuspecting, it looks simple. It’s not.

FIU QB Max Bortenschlager has actually been the bright spot of the Panthers this season, 17 TDS – 7 picks, 2,469 yards. He has a strong match-up against MTSU’s pass defense which gets lit up any time it faces a comparable signal-caller (48 points against WKU, 41 against Liberty, 42 against Charlotte, 35 against Virginia Tech). Though FIU’s defense is nothing to marvel in (quite frankly it’s awful), MTSU’s offense ranks 107th in the country in total yards. To reinforce the premise, the Panthers could have won at Central Michigan and against Texas State this season which would have given them three wins. FIU blew a double-digit lead against CMU and subsequently lost in the last two minutes of regulation against the Chips and blew a touchdown-lead against T-State to lose in overtime against the Bobcats. Had FIU held on and won these games, what would this number be; -4½, -6½, -7½? MTSU is no better than Central Michigan or even Texas State for that matter but they’re priced like this is Indy v Jacksonville. There is no reason to suspect FIU can’t win this game.

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