Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST.
MISSISSIPPI +120 over Texas A&M
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, MS
7:00 PM EST. Texas A&M has emerged in the market’s crosshairs because they are a “must-win” team. The discussion surrounding the Aggies is that should they win out and Alabama loses one more game along the way, Texas A&M will be on its way to Atlanta to face off with the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship. On the flipside, Ole Miss would need miraculous circumstances to achieve the same feat, so therefore Texas A&M has to win here while Ole Miss has nothing to play for. Yeah, ok, let’s go with that. Ole Miss who is presently ranked has no interest in knocking off the #11th ranked team in the land at home before a wild fan base. Ridiculous.
The fact that the Aggies have won and covered in their last four conference games adds more appeal. Moreover, A&M is 5-0 ATS in their last five stints as a road favorite and they have also won and covered in the last three meetings between both parties. This further inflates the stock of the Aggies but at the end of the day, linesmakers were reluctant to give the Rebs more than a field goal.
It wasn’t too long ago that QB Matt Corral was a front-runner for the Heisman and many were singing Ole Miss praises. However, thanks to Jimbo Fisher becoming the first ever Saban assistant to knock off his former boss with a win against ‘Bama (a team Ole Miss lost to by 21 but it is worth mentioning that Lane Kiffin took some insane risks in that game which put the Rebs behind the proverbial eight ball), the market has forgotten about Mississippi.
Most recently, A&M defeated Auburn 20-3, a team that Ole Miss also lost to by a score of 30-21. However, the Aggies had the advantage of knocking off both Alabama and Auburn in College Station with the 12th man behind them. Ole Miss had to travel to the Plains and to T-Town to deal with Auburn and Alabama respectively. If one thinks that home field advantage isn’t pertinent in the SEC then one is not paying attention.
Though Mike Elko’s Aggies defense might be tough to solve, we suspect Corral is more likely to fire the deciding scoring shots than A&M counterpart Zach Calzada, who has performed borderline heroic at times in for starter Haynes King since September, but had also thrown picks in six straight games before last week vs. Auburn, when he couldn’t even lead the Aggies on a TD drive, leaning on the D do all of the heavy lifting (including scoring the game’s only TD) in the 20-3 win over Bryan Harsin’s boys. With the many transfers on D.J. Durkin’s Rebels defense making increasing contributions as the year has progressed, it’s doubtful A&M does much more with the ball than it did last week. Wrong side favored and therefore Ole Miss gets the outright call.
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MISSISSIPPI +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)