Pinnacle -3 +101 BET365 -2½ -110 SportInteraction -2½ -115 BetOnline -2½ 111 Bookmaker -2½ -110

Posted at 8:45 AM EST.

NORTH CAROLINA -2½ over Wake Forest

Kennan Memorial Stadium – Chapel Hill, NC

Streaming: ABC

12:00 PM EST. The rationale for getting behind the Deacs is plentiful, beginning with the feel-good story surrounding the undefeated Demon Deacons, who attained their highest ranking ever in the College Football Playoff polls. Wake Forest is a top-10 team, it is undefeated and today the market finds them taking back a tag against a 4-4 side who lost to Georgia Tech and Florida State.

One must also consider the market presence of North Carolina. At one point this season, UNC sat where Wake did. That was back in September when UNC was a top-10 outfit with a quarterback tabbed as a Heisman Hopeful in Sam Howell. While Wake has been one of the surprise splashes of 2021, the Tar Heels have been one of the season’s biggest disappointments. Our Buy low/sell high strategy must be applied.

We also have the trends such as Wake being 4-1 against the number in the underdog role in their last five combined with the eye-candy metrics surrounding their offense. Indeed, the Deacs have one of the most prolific offenses in the country but this is the same team that had to score 70 to beat Army, a team known for one of the most basic and simplified offenses. When we look at Wake’s résumé, it is a dubious 8-0, as their victories include wins over Norfolk State (FCS side), Old Dominion (Group of Five team with a 2-6 record), Florida State (not the ‘Noles of old), two games they could have lost (Syracuse in OT and Louisville where they escaped by way of a field goal as they struggled to put the Cards away), Duke (another dreg), the aforementioned Army (where they had score 70 against an option team), and their most credible win against Virginia in September where the Deacs won 37-17.

It is worth pointing out that UVA is very much built like Wake Forest, they live and die by their pass-happy spread air-raid style approach. The Deacs were more efficient in that one although UVA was more productive (The Hoos gained more yards through the air and in total but committed more turnovers and had a lower completion percentage in pass attempts). North Carolina plays that same style in that they, too, are an offensive juggernaut and will face Wake’s horrible defense.

Another narrative we’re hearing is that UNC has nothing to play for while Wake has plenty. That’s true but it’s also true that Wake has more pressure while the Tar Heels are playing with house money. Last year, Sam Howell and UNC’s offense racked up 742 yards against Wake and will most likely put up similar numbers today. The fact that UNC is favored also suggests to us that the books are trusting UNC to not only rack up more yards than Wake but to win by a margin.

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