Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 8:45 AM EST.
PURDUE +130 over Michigan State
Ross-Ade Stadium – West Lafayette, IN
3:30 PM EST. The Spartans are undefeated against the spread with two pushes and six covers in eight games. Before we even consider all of the other elements in this equation, this accentuates the market appeal of Michigan State.
MSU has overcome pretty much every market inefficiency and red flag season to date and we can chart this all the way back to Week 1, when the Spartans were heavily bet down from a 6-point pooch at open to +3 or +3½ on close against Northwestern. The Spartans whacked NW, 38-21. The efficient market killed it and haven’t stopped since.
We can review the annals and discuss the notable episodes of Michigan State being a broken ATM machine when it won outright against Miami despite the world being on the Spartans, or when they covered as a short favorite on the road at Rutgers (-5), where once again the efficient market cashed in easy after MSU lit up the Scarlet Knights. We can also discuss Michigan State being an underdog last week when it played host to Michigan and despite every trend in the series and season bending towards the Spartans and thus rendering them a great wager based on recency bias and useless trends, the Spartans managed to overcome a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter and won the game outright in a 37-33 shocker. Always watch for misleading results and MSU’s win last week over Michigan was one of them. The Wolverines racked up 552 yards of offense to MSU’s 395.
Michigan State finds itself undefeated and ranked #3 in the inaugural College Football Playoff polls which has the market rushing to the window to back the Spartans here again, as they are laying what appears to be an equitable price against the unranked, three-loss Boilermakers. That doesn’t smell right my friends.
The Spartans have won the last nine in a row against the Boilermakers. Outside of last year’s game where Michigan State was on a down year and thus the underdog, MSU has been a 20-plus point favorite in each of the games that took place between these two sides dating back to 2010. Now, Michigan State with its Cinderella story, lofty CFP ranking, and propensity to be overvalued is spotting a field goal to Purdue? Had any of the following not been on the table, the Boilers may actually be favored here. As such, we will play it accordingly, as the Boilermakers are no stranger to pulling upsets, you can ask Iowa about that one.
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PURDUE +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)