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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

MISSISSIPPI ST -2 over Kentucky

Davis Wade Stadium – Starkville, MS

Streaming: SEC Network

7:00 PM EST. This number has been jumping back and forth all week between UK -1, to a pick-em, to Miss State -1 but no matter where it lands or how you slice it, it checks a bunch of boxes for us. To begin with, we have a ranked team, #12 Kentucky taking back points and that’s the first alarm that goes off. Furthermore, the Wildcats have been a cash cow this year with a 6-1 record against the spread (ATS) and when a team keeps cashing in, oddsmakers take note and make adjustments. This one looks like anything but an adjustment. We would even call it low hanging fruit.

So, what we have here is a 4-3 unranked team (Mississippi State) spotting points to a 6-1 team that is ranked #12 in the country. Furthermore, Kentucky is off a bye after a 30-13 loss at UGA where the ‘Cats were taking back 21½-points and covered while Mississippi State beat a pathetic Vanderbilt team. The week before that, we all saw Mississippi State get waffled by Alabama 49-9 the week after Alabama lost to A&M.

Lost in the results and record on paper is that Mississippi State has a victory over Texas A&M and that they were exactly equal in yards against Alabama in the first half. In losses to Memphis and LSU, Miss State held a +222 and +144 yards advantage. By contrast, Kentucky had close wins against South Carolina, Mizzou and Chattanooga (28-23). Kentucky’s best win this season came against Florida, 20-13, which was another fortunate victory among others. The Wildcats were outgained by a significant 158 yds. The Wildcats have been living a charmed life, they’re not even close to being the 12th best team in America and this week we are betting they get exposed.

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