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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

HOUSTON -1 over SMU

TDECU Stadium – Houston, TX

Streaming: ESPN 2

7:00 PM EST. You can pretty much take everything we mentioned in the Mississippi State/Kentucky wager and apply it to this game as well. The similarities are so glaring, so much so that if we’re playing State, we must also play the Cougars from Houston.

At first glance we see an undefeated and ranked #16 SMU Mustangs taking back a pork-chop against an unranked Houston team. The Ponies have what we like to call a ton of market appeal because of their explosive offensive. In fact, SMU’s offense was on full display in prime time last week when they took Tulane to the woodshed 55-26. SMU led at the half 31-7 and had 400 yards in the first half before shifting into cruise control in the second half. In the end, the Mustangs racked up 612 total yards. The Mustangs are putting up video game numbers almost every week and that’s something the market eats up. However, we’re not buying SMU’s #16 ranking because it is flawed in a big way. A close look reveals that the Ponies have beaten Abilene Christian, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, South Florida, TCU, Tulane and Navy. They beat Louisiana Tech by two points and they beat TCU and Navy by one possession.

Meanwhile, Houston’s only loss was to Texas Tech in the first game of the year. Since then, the Cougars have won six in a row, all in rather convincing fashion with the exception of last week’s OT win over East Carolina. Houston was a 13½-point fav and nearly lost outright. When we apply recency bias (SMU whacked Tulane while Houston nearly lost to ECU) to SMU’s ranking, we can then assure you that the points here are deflated. While the market puts far too much emphasis on results, especially most recent. We’ll point out that Houston’s defense is vastly superior to SMU’s. Houston has registered multiple sacks in every game including 18 in just four AAC contests this season. The Cougars hold opponents to nearly 100 yards below their season average, which ranks 11th in the country in that department.

SMU lives and dies by its offense, thus they are a cold night away from a loss. The pools have them ranked #16 but we’d argue that they might not even be a top 50 team, let alone 16. The Cougars have multiple ways to win this game while SMU has only one, which urges us to warn any that get behind Southern Methodist University that they are not the steal they’re perceived to be. The steal here is Houston.

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