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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

BALL STATE +175 over Toledo

Scheumann Stadium – Muncie, IN

Streaming: With any luck, you’ll find this game on ESPN +

2:00 PM EST. There are a couple moving parts to this play. First, this is a fade of Toledo, who has made a bit of a name for itself after nearly staging an upset of #10 Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago before a national audience. The Rockets led with just over a minute to go until late-game heroics by Irish quarterback Jack Coan would enable the Golden Domers to escape with a 32-29 win. Though the Blast-offs lost the game, they nonetheless left a positive impression within the market. As a result, Toledo took some backing last week when they played host to winless Colorado State. The Rockets would lose outright by a score of 22-6 despite closing as a 14½-point choice. However, the market has forgiven Toledo and wrote off the poor showing as a letdown from the heartbreak of coming so close to pulling off the historic upset. Given the showing of Toledo’s opponent last week, we have seen some “bounceback” references pointing Toledo's way.

The Cardinals got whacked on the road last week at the hands of the Wyoming Cowboys. Though Ball State was taking back less than a converted touchdown (6½ points), the Ragtimes never left any doubt, as they rolled the Cards 45-12, leading by a score of 31-0 at half-time. It was an ugly, ugly loss that will keep the market away from Ball State this week but not us. We see it as another opportunity to get behind a team that the market is overreacting to. 

The Rockets against Notre Dame were playing the role of the hunter, they had nothing to lose and everything to gain. Furthermore, Notre Dame came with its “C” game and it’s not the first time a big favorite overlooked a nothing team. One must always remember that these are kids playing a game. Every single one of them knows the pointspread and it influences them to think they only need to show up to win. The Irish nearly got caught but don’t mistake it for a strong effort by Toledo. The Rockets are favored here because why

Could one really trust Toledo in this spot? This is a team that just got walloped by a club that got smoked by a FCS team and whose only win came against Norfolk State. Ball State just got embarrassed at Wyoming and we would argue that it is they and not Toledo that figures to bounce back. Cardinals outright is the call.

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