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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

FLORIDA ST +103 over Louisville

Bobby Bowden Field at Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

Streaming ESPN2

3:30 PM EST. These two schools are coming off very different weeks, which should allow us to take advantage to overreactions on both sides. First, let’s start with Louisville, who is fresh off a high profile contest last Friday night against UCF. The Cardinals were a popular fade target in the market that night, but outlasted the Knights 42-34. A win like that will get one noticed in the market and it has seemingly all but erased Louisville’s rough start to the season, which included getting whacked by Ole Miss in the season opener. The Cardinals are now 2-1, with their other victory coming over Eastern Kentucky (30-3). We cannot overemphasize last week’s resonating win in prime time, which raised the Cardinals stock a tier too high. That has us looking to sell. 

What to make of these Seminoles? 2021 has not been kind to Florida State, but that presents us with an extreme buy low opportunity. FSU is off to its worst start in years and another loss would make this their poorest start in almost 50 years. The last time the Seminoles dropped four straight to start the year was 1974 (that year the ‘Noles went 0-8 out of the gate). For the moment, this 0-3 run is the slowest start since 1976, which was legendary coach Bobby Bowden’s first year in Tallahassee. Feel old yet? With most of the talk this week is on the past, there is optimism around FSU, as second year man Mike Norvell has liked what he’s seen the last two games or so, despite the lacklustre results, “I’ve got confidence in where this team is going. I’m not talking about years from now. I’m talking about right now ---this opportunity, this week.”

FSU got whacked by Wake Forest last week, lost to Jacksonville State as a -28-point choice and was edged by Notre Dame in Week 1, 41-38 in overtime. When you consider that high-profile Monday Night game to close Week 1, the letdown against J-Ville State (on a short week) is a little easier to digest, although we doubt many boosters or those in the market will take that stand. However, we are going to trust that a bounce-back here combined with a potential letdown spot for Louisville after its exposure on national TV is on the menu. The overreaction to teams coming off stand alone, high profile prime time games is real. Hell, the Cardinals were taking back a converted touchdown last week against UCF and now they are favored on the road in Tallahassee? That isn’t right and it’s a market inefficiency we are going to attempt to exploit.

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