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Posted at 3:55 PM EST.

SYRACUSE +6½ over Liberty

Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY

Streaming: ACC Network

8:00 PM EST. The narrative surrounding this game will be the favorable trends associated with Liberty, as the market will remind you that the Flames are unscathed on the season against the number, picking up right where they left off from their 2020-21 campaign, where the Flames closed out with eight straight Against The Spread (ATS) victories. When you combine that with the fact that Liberty came to the Carrier Dome just under a year ago and walloped Syracuse 38-21 despite only spotting three points to the Orange.

To open the year on Sept 4, Syracuse was a 2-point underdog to a MAC team. Despite winning, 29-9, the Orange only gained 100 yards through the air. The following week against Rutgers, Syracuse would score a lousy 7 points and go down 17-7 as a 2½-point dog. Last week, the Orange whacked Albany but that victory carries zero weight. Point is, Syracuse’s résumé is not a strong one. Liberty is 3-0, both straight up and ATS. Make no mistake, those that price these games are by no means running a charity. In the most normal of circumstances, we would cite the perils that come with laying road points at an underdog-conducive figure. However, when we consider the party that is being subjected to such an event, all sorts of alarms are going off, as the market has feasted on the Flames for a very long time.

Liberty has covered in nine straight games. With every week that Liberty cashes a ticket, its stock increases. In other words, if they were overpriced three weeks ago and covered, then two weeks ago and covered and then last week and covered, they were spotting progressively more inflated points each week. Now run that hypothesis for nine weeks.

For a program like Syracuse, which many publications forecasted to be a bottom-feeder in the ACC and perhaps lucky to win more than three games this year, this is the perfect scenario for a correction to occur. The Orange are playing with a big chip on their shoulders. They ran the ball for close to 300 yards in its opener against Ohio. In their 17-7 loss to Rutgers, the Orange had more yards both in the air and on the ground but four fumbles and a pick did them in. Meanwhile, Liberty has played Old Dominion, Troy and Campbell.

There’s some college football talk this week that claims with a win tonight in this prime time slot, Liberty can obtain a ranking should it do as it is supposed to. This Liberty team put itself on the map last year with a massive win against Va Tech as a 17-point dog early in the year, not to mention a win in the Mortgage Cure Bowl over then #12 Coastal Carolina. Add nine straight covers and we can absolutely assure you that the Liberty Flames are spotting inflated points here in a game the Orange can and likely will win outright.

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