Pinnacle +3½ -104 BET365 +3½ -110 SportsInteraction +3½ -110 BetOnline +3½ -110 Bookmaker +3½ -110

INDIANA +3½ -104 over Cincinnati

Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, IN

Streaming: ESPN

12:00 PM EST. Cincinnati has been a bit of a market darling since going undefeated in 2020, knocking off UCF, winning The American Athletic Conference, and then playing the Georgia Bulldogs tough in the 2021 Peach Bowl. The Bearcats have been predicted to run the table again in 2021 and emerge as the first Group of Five team to qualify for the College Football Playoff. Some have also prognosticated that Cincy quarterback Desmond Ridder may hoist the Heisman hardware as a part of this perceived fabled run. This week, the #8 Bearcats are spotting a small number on the road. Yikes. We say yikes because when we see this kind of price associated with a top-10 side like Cincinnati, all sorts of alarm bells start sounding off.

Last year, Indiana was a feel-good story and a cash cow so there was some hype leading into this year. However, since being smacked by Iowa to open-up their 2021 campaign, any semblance of market credibility has vanished with IU. In other words, Indiana’s stock has lowered significantly while Cinci’s is starting to skyrocket. That’s the setup for this buy-low/sell high scenario.

You will also hear or read that this game is a “must-win” for Cincinnati if they wish to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. While we can write an essay about why one should not wager on a team that “must win”, we will also highlight that such notions create a tremendous amount of pressure and that is not conducive to college kids playing in a hostile environment like Bloomington. After all, Indiana is now characterized as just a middling team in the B1G, they are no longer “the team that is a threat to Ohio State” or even ranked for that matter.

Cincinnati has played two cupcakes. They were favored by 22½ and 36½ in its first two games of the year and haven’t broken a sweat yet. Even though the Hoosiers were stomped on by Iowa, they were just a 3½-point pooch on the road and the final score did not reflect how close that game was but all the market sees is a 34-6 loss. Truth is, Indiana’s D played great by allowing just 303 total yds to the Hawkeyes. The Hoosiers were done in by two pick sixes and three first half interceptions. They cleaned up their act last week but it was against a cupcake so all that is left for the market to see is bad loss to a quality outfit. That bad loss to a quality outfit provides us with this outstanding opportunity. Hoosiers outright is the call but we’ll play if safe here and grab the points in what should be a competitive game between two pretty good teams with different strengths.

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