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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. 

ECU +115 over South Carolina

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – Greeneville, NC

Streaming subscribers: ESPN2

12:00 PM EST. Every now and then, we come across a number that sticks out like a sore-thumb. Initially, the 0-1 East Carolina Pirates from the American Athletic Conference opened as a two-point choice to the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0) from the mighty SEC, a team that ECU incidentally has not defeated since 1999. While the initial asking price on East Carolina caused us to scratch our heads at minimum as to why they are priced in the range, it didn’t take long for the efficient market to add their two cents. Very quickly the Gamecocks jumped the fence and landed as a -2.5-point favorite.

ECU looked absolutely horrible in its opening week loss to Appalachian State. As a nine-point pooch, the Pirates were trounced by their intrastate opponent. App St led 27-9 before a couple of junk-time TD’s made the score look respectable when in fact it was not. More importantly, we saw ECU bet down from as high as a 13½-point pooch to the closing price of +9, thus suggesting that a shitload of tickets were ripped up. ECU lost by 14, but could have easily lost by 40 had App State not called off the dogs.

Readers of this space are aware of the zig-zag phenomenon. That entails betting a team one week, seeing them get whacked, and then zig-zagging to bet against them the following week. That’s in play in a big way here, as the market zig-zags off ECU this week to fade them after witnessing the Pirates horrible showing.  

Incidentally, South Carolina did what it was supposed to do last week in an easy cover as a 31.5-point favorite when it pitched a 46-0 shutout in Week One against FCS competitor EIU. South Carolina is on a rebuild. Aside from that, they have a massive game on deck next week when they’ll travel to play #2 Georgia. Aside from the zig-zag strategy we’re employing, the lookahead spot adds more flavor for us to test the waters fading the Gamecocks as a road favorite against a team they should be road dogs against. Watch ECU’s QB this week lay waste to a weak defense. Dude is good

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