Iowa @ IOWA ST
IOWA ST -4½ +100 over Iowa

Pinnacle -4½ -105 BET365 -4½ +100 SportsInteraction -4½ -110 BetOnlin-4½ -110 Bookmaker -4½ -110

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. 

IOWA ST -4½ over Iowa

Jack Trice Stadium – Ames, IA

Streaming: ABC channels

4:30 PM EST. In the build-up to The Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, we once again find an outstanding opportunity because of the market’s propensity to overreact to Week 1. As a -3½-point favorite against Indiana last week, Iowa was an extremely popular choice. The Hawkeyes didn’t disappoint, as they had little trouble delivering in a 34-6 walloping. In fact, Hawkeyes’ backers knew they were sitting on a winning ticket by halftime, as the game was long-decided when Iowa held a 31-3 lead going to the locker room. Winning easily resonates. So does cashing a ticket.

On the flipside, the Cyclones, who were regarded by some as a dark horse for the College Football Playoff in 2021, didn’t play anything close to that level in their season opener, nor were they ever anywhere close to covering either. As a -28½-point favorite at home last week, the ‘Clones did not even score 28 points. ISU avoided an upset bid by FCS Northern Iowa in a 16-10 thriller. In fact, UNI led at one point in the game and had an opportunity to steal the win at the end of the fourth had it not been for late heroics by the Cyclones defense to hold off the upset-minded Panthers. Whew. ISU left with a win but they also left a very sour taste.

With a week to digest both results, we, like the rest of the market, cannot find anything appealing about Week 1’s results that justifies the price here on the favorite. However, unlike most of the market, we see it as a warning sign, a trap, if you will instead of a gift and will react accordingly.

The trap gets even better, as Iowa has won the last five meetings between both parties but it doesn’t stop there, as another popular narrative is fuelling the market. You see, although Iowa State Head Coach Matt Campbell has led the Cyclones to relevance, he has never beaten ISU’s cross-state arch rival. When we combine all the talking points with the anecdote that the ‘Clones have not won at home against the Hawkeyes in a decade, Iowa looks like the golden goose.

This is not some under the radar, second tier game. This is a massive rivalry game that will be broadcast on one of the four major networks across America. Do you really think the oddsmakers put out a bad number here? The efficient market thinks so but we do not and will gladly swallow the deflated points.

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Our Pick

IOWA ST -4½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)