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Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

GEORGIA STATE -2½ over Army

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming Subscribers: ESPN U

12:00 PM EST. Army has a tremendous amount of public appeal, as they are very simply one of America’s teams. As many tuck into a hearty menu of College Football’s first full Saturday in two years, parlays and accumulators will undoubtedly be a feature of the action. If one was to hypothesize on which team in the early slate would anchor said wagers, the boys from West Point would be a safe bet. With taht said, we are going to delve further as to why the value lies with Georgia State.

In addition to playing this game on their own turf, the Panthers return 20 of their starters from the 2020 season, including all 11 offensive players such as wide receiver Sam Pinckney, who has NFL upside. Also returning is quarterback Cornelius Brown, who is your prototypical dual-threat playmaker. With the stewardship of Head Coach Shawn Elliot, who has single-handedly transformed this program into a formidable foe, there is a lot that can be said about a team that has continuity and seemingly buys into a proven philosophy. We can talk about emotional intangibles and how that can affect a contest and if we were, those would also favor the Panthers here. You see, winning a game against a team like Army is a landmark victory for the Georgia State program, as it marks further progression in the direction that the Panthers hope to go. That narrative has not been quantified when you read the analyses of so many “experts'' concerning this game.

Instead you will hear that Army came off a 9-3 season, had one of the best defenses in the country, and that their signature triple-option will be difficult to stop. But in taking a closer look under the hood of the Black Knights’ résumé, it is certainly discernible as to why they had such great success. Army’s dominant wins came against the following: Middle Tennessee State, UL Monroe, Abilene Christian, The Citadel, UTSA, Mercer, Georgia Southern, Navy, and Air Force. In other words, three low-tier FCS teams, one team who didn’t win a game in 2020 (ULM), a dreg that didn’t make a bowl game (MTSU), two games against “option” teams that they could have easily lost to (Georgia Southern and Air Force by a combined four points), and Navy who had an atypical down year. None of the teams listed incidentally are known for their offensive acumen. However, when the Knights faced anyone that could score (like Georgia State can), Army lost by considerable margins as they were defeated by an average of 20 points against Cincinnati and Tulane. Now the Knights are expected to win outright against a football team that returns all of its offensive firepower and hungry to make a name for itself on its own soil? State is favored for a reason here but the efficient market does not see it that way. That’s another nugget in our pocket.

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