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Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

Miami +19½ over Alabama

Chick-Fil A Kickoff Classic

Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming: Several ABC channels across the continent

3:30 PM EST. Although they are routinely overpriced on a weekly basis, we don’t bet against the Tide every week but you rarely, if ever, see us getting behind them because of the premium one must pay for doing so. However, there is a time and a place to fade teams like Alabama. Our goal as handicappers is to derive said occasions and this appears to be one of them.

An emergent trope in the buildup to this game is Nick Saban’s record in opening games since taking control in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has never lost an opening game. Furthermore, they are 11-2 against the number in their last 13 openers. For much of this market, this is the first week of betting on football or seeing teams for the first time this year, thus, why not go back to an ol’ reliable? It’s a simple wager that just keeps paying. After said trend is highlighted the bullet points that substantiate a position on Alabama are vague and surface-level at best.

Very simply, “Miami is good but Alabama is better”. “Alabama is “on another level”. “Tide never lose an opener and they always cover”. Thing is, superlatives alone don’t cash tickets, value does. Nevertheless, there is a very good chance that these adjectives combined with some useless trends are why the market is keen to play the Crimson Tide at an inflated price, which is a position we trust we can exploit. 

“The U” were expected to be back to prominence for several years now. Miami has been on the cusp, finding itself ranked, and in the conversation for the ACC Coastal but they have yet to get over the proverbial hump, nor have they posed any threat to the Big Kid on the ACC Ant Hill, Clemson. In fact, we could say that Miami’s poor showing against an elite team like the Tigers in 2020 is influencing this market even more. Against Clemson last year in Week 4 after Miami was 3-0 with three blowout wins, the U was bet down by the efficient market and ended up getting walloped by the Tigers by a score of 42-17. The market is not going to make that mistake again.

What we know for sure is that this game is in Atlanta, Georgia and not in Tuscaloosa. Yeah, it’ll be a partisan crowd in favor of Alabama and the Tide have an incredible history of blowing out teams at neutral sites but again, that’s a useless trend that inflates the points here even more. Secondly, Alabama returns just three starters on offense, which includes replacing their starting QB, their #1 RB and their two top receivers, not to mention three offensive lineman. Meanwhile, Miami returns 19 starters including all five starting OL and will start the year with the most experienced team in the entire country. Add it all up and the Hurricanes have 190 career starts behind them.

In the not too distant past, big wins against elite opponents were a part of the Hurricane furniture. We’re not saying that the Hurricanes are going to win here, as everyone knows that’s beyond absurd but a team like Miami, with all that experience and talent, is absolutely worth a wager taking back a bunch of inflated points, especially when you consider the backdoor power they have should they be down by three or four TD’s going to the 4th quarter.

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