Pinnacle +4½ -111 BET365 +4 -115 SportsInteraction +4 -115 BetOnline +4 -115 Bookmaker +4 -115

Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

UTSA +4½ over ILLINOIS

Memorial Stadium – Champaign, IL

Streaming Subscribers: Big Ten Network

7:30 PM EST.  Last week, we faded Illinois and were on the end of a ripped ticket. This week we will continue our assault on the Fighting Illini because we are not convinced that the Oskie Wow Wows are worthy of the acclaim they are receiving.

Against Nebraska, Illinois not only covered as a 6½-point dog, they won outright. While many were quick to fade the Cornhuskers last week because of Illinois’ track record against Big Red combined with Nebraska’s overall poor market presence, this week the market is quick to ride the Illini as a result of last week’s upset. 

That is what we refer to as zig-zagging. Had it not been for good old in-game variance, the Illini could have easily lost and quite frankly they could have failed to come in under the number.

Nebraska literally did everything possible to lose a football game. Despite getting some solid play from their quarterback and their defense being a tough riddle to solve for the Illini overall, a series of special teams blunders and turnovers enabled Illinois to climb out to a 30-9 lead despite trailing by a converted touchdown as it went into halftime (even after Nebraska committed one of the most bizarre plays in history that awarded Illinois a safety). With all that being said, once Nebraska seemed to get itself together, it had little difficulty coming back into the game and even had an opportunity to tie the contest in the closing stages of regulation until the miscues and hiccups cost the Cornhuskers the game. When it was all said and done, we saw the Illini celebrating the victory as if it were a bowl game. This is rather incredulous for a team that held a 21-point lead at one point and should be expected to trample a lowly team like Texas-San Antonio from the Conference USA. The point is that if Nebraska played smarter or a little less sloppy and then whacked the Illini like they probably should have, the market reaction to this affair would be entirely different.

Look, the Illini could very well strike again here but we’re not in the prediction business. The people behind the number are taking a clear position that they don’t expect Roadrunners to roll over. Our job is to recognize a number that is very appealing to the public and take a contrarian approach. In fact, there is a strong possibility that the Meep Meeps may turn the Illinois into Wile E Coyote, steal a win, and speed off into the night while those getting behind the Illini will be falling into the trap themselves, betting a team a week too late. The posted number speaks volumes.

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