Pinnacle -3 +104 BET365 -3 -110 SportsInteraction -3 -105 BetOnline -3 -108 Bookmaker -3 -110

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and updated at 9:20 PM EST. 

CALIFORNIA -3 over Nevada

California Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, CA

Streaming Subscribers TV: Fox Sports 1

10:30 PM EST. The Nevada Wolf Pack have lofty expectations for 2021, as they are expected to be a player in the Mountain West Conference race, led by quarterback Carson Strong, who many NFL scouts are salivating over. Now the Wolf Pack, with a golden boy QB, are being offered points? Enticing, isn’t it? Not only are they being offered points, but there is a hook on a key number to entice one even more. After all, California is a middling Pac-12 team that is a defense-first outfit.

Some handicappers will tell you that they play numbers and the field-goal plus the hook here has become the apple of the eye of those that get behind Nevada here. However, this is the wrong approach. Very simply, a wager on the Wolf Pack is playing right into the hands of the house, as the field goal plus the half point only provides the illusion of excellent insurance. We’d argue that it is nothing more than a proverbial carrot dangling on the end of the string, as we find that the chalk priced in this range often wins games by margins where the half point is rarely a factor.

Nevada, in its 2020 emergence played three road games, two of which they won at UNLV and New Mexico (two FBS bottom-feeders) and lost at Hawaii (a team with any semblance of home field advantage). However, the pandemic limited attendance at all of these venues, regardless of competitive quality. In 2021, the Wolf Pack, like all other teams, will have to deal with fans again. It is especially trifling for the Pack that their first assignment is against a team that bodes one of the most picturesque yet intimidating settings in all of college football. Over the years, many teams came to Strawberry Canyon with high hopes and aspirations only to see their season wrecked by the pesky Golden Bears and their rabid fan base. The number next to Cal on the board is a clear sign that Nevada is the next victim to fall prey to all the snares of Berkeley. Swallow the points but wait until game time, as this price could very well drop to below -3 by kickoff. We are playing this game but it is a late one so we’d be foolish not to wait until just before this bailout game begins. We’ll update this sometime after 9:00 PM EST.

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