Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:50 AM EST.
West Virginia -7 over Army. Streaming - ESPN
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
4:00 PM EST. The Black Knights have quite a bit of market appeal these days, as they are one of the most beloved teams in all of America. Furthermore, the Black Knights have been cashing tickets lately in isolated games, which has put a spotlight on them that we’ll try and take advantage of. First, Army beat Navy in the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy and covered as a 7½-point favorite. In its follow up, Army was taking back four points against Air Force and although they lost, they covered once again.
Before we even consider the perilous spot that accompanies Army, we must emphasize the point that buying now on the Knights could very well be doing so a week or two too late, which rarely comes recommended. Instead, we are now selling high on Army and certainly buying low on West Virginia as well.
The last time we saw West Virginia, they were getting frog-stomped by Iowa State, 42-6. They were a six-point underdog that day. A loss like that almost always causes a market overreaction. What also resonates with us is that WVU opened as a -7½-point favorite here, which is one of our favorite prices to get behind. The half-point hook is dangled over the pup under the guise of an easy cover should the pooch lose by a converted touchdown. Furthermore, Army is a 9-2 team taking back significant points against a 5-4 team.
Unlike the market, we’re going to completely ignore WVU’s debacle against Iowa State. It happens. Let’s not forget who the Mountaineers are. They were a +2½-point dog to Texas and held the Longhorns to 17 points. They lost by four. They also beat TCU, 24-6, K-State, 37-10 and Baylor, 27-21 among others. The Mountaineers defense is a ferocious one that has held some outstanding offensive teams to their lowest outputs of the season. So, while Army was beating up teams like Mid-Tenn State, Abilene Christian, UTSA, Mercer and Georgia Southern, WVU was competing against some of the best teams in the country. Incidentally, Army beat Citadel, 14-9, UTSA, 28-16 and Georgia Southern, 28-27. The Black Knights are the vastly inferior team here that has scored 25 points combined in their last two victories and will now take a massive step up in class when facing the Mountaineers great defense. Army is going to need in-game variance to bounce their way x10 to come in under this number. Underlay.
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West Virginia -7 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)