Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
Louisiana Tech +6½ over Georgia Southern
R and L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
3:00 PM EST. It’s two days before Christmas and we’re in the middle of a pandemic. Bowl Season has kicked off, which means there are isolated games on a weekday afternoon in which the two combatants are not very well known. If you’re home, have the day off or the afternoon or late afternoon off, what is better than kicking back, relaxing with a little wager on a football game?
The question now becomes which team to bet on. One team is from the little known Sun-Belt Conference while the other is from C-USA. The Sun Belt has Coastal Carolina and App State so it does have a little bit of market credibility while C-USA does not have anyone of note this season. That aside, when anyone that is looking for information reads up about this game, the first thing they are going to read about is Louisiana Tech losing its starting QB in the final game of the year.
Bulldogs QB, Luke Anthony was lost in the final minutes of their most recent game, a 52-10 loss at TCU. He will be replaced by Aaron Allen, who came in and threw two interceptions against the Horned Frogs. Allen has thrown for 561 yards with four touchdowns and five picks this season. Thing is, this is not the Horned Frogs. Georgia Southern is a big step down in class for Tech.
Meanwhile, the Eagles might be down to their third-string quarterback, Miller Mosley, who has attempted 15 passes with two interceptions. Senior Shai Werts missed the final two regular-season games with a right shoulder injury and is questionable to play in the bowl game, and backup Justin Tomlin had ankle surgery and is out.
At the time of this writing (Wednesday), Werts was still listed as questionable but regardless of whether he plays or not, Georgia Southern possesses a rushing attack that generates 262.4 yards per game on the ground and is up against a Louisiana Tech defense that surrenders 184.6 rushing yards per outing, and a defense that gives up 34.5 points per contest. That’s chalkboard talk that we pay no attention to but the market will. The thinking is that this is going to be a rushing dominated game and in that regard, the Eagles have a big edge but we’re not buying that chalkboard talk for a second.
What we know for sure is that Georgia Southern is grossly overpriced here. The oddsmakers have overcompensated for Tech’s QB loss. What we know for sure is that Louisiana Tech played a tougher slate of games with losses to Marshall and BYU, not to mention a three-point win over UAB. Meanwhile Georgia Southern lost 28-14 to Coastal Carolina, which looks good on paper but CC is not built to blow out opponents. This is an Eagles' squad that lost to Army, got lucky to beat Texas State 40-38 and also got lucky to beat the 0-10 Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. This is a bad favorite spotting significant points. We’re calling the upset and will therefore split our bet.
Louisiana Tech +212 for 1 unit
Louisiana Tech +6½ +102 for 1 unit
Total risk = 2 units
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Louisiana Tech +6½ +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)