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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. 

Nevada +125 over Tulane

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID

Streaming: ESPN

3:30 PM EST. Tulane is 6-1 Against the Spread (ATS) in its last seven outings. The Green Wave are also 13-3 ATS over their last 16 games when priced as the chalk and they’re 5-1 ATS over their last six against out-of-conference foes. The market actually uses this useless information as a reason to get behind the favorite when it should be looking the other way. When a team keeps covering, there is an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers and that is precisely what is taking place here.

We are not one for breaking down the X’s and O’s in a contest, but there was a point this season where the market was drooling over Nevada and their gunslinging quarterback Carson Strong. After losing their first game to Hawaii in the islands, in a 24-21 upset, Nevada has since vanished from the public eye. When the Wolf Pack had a chance to redeem itself against San Jose State in December to punch a ticket to the Mountain West Conference title game, the Wolf Pack once again dropped the ball in a 20-10 loss. That’s Nevada’s two losses this season: a narrow defeat in Hawaii (forgivable) and to the undefeated conference champion that just beat Boise St in the MWC title game. 

Tulane has two “good losses”, which we will get to more in-depth but it also has two hideous losses to Houston and UCF. The Green Wave also blew a 24-point lead against Navy of all teams. The market perception here is that Tulane is the superior team but we would argue that Nevada, on its worst day, is better than Tulane on their best day. 

The Green Wave narrowly lost to SMU and Tulsa by way of overtime to encapsulate the “two good losses” but that was because said parties were guilty of taking the Squids lightly. Besides, SMU is very beatable. From a matchup perspective, Nevada owns a huge edge in its passing attack against Tulane’s swiss-cheese secondary, which is among the worst in the FBS but thanks to a bunch of meaningless trends and Tulane’s misleading record, we trust we’re getting the better team at a price. Wolves outright is the call.

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