Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
MISSISSIPPI ST -1 -103 over Missouri Davis Wade Stadium – Starkville, MS
3:30 PM EST. Our one play this week that does not feature conference championship credentials on the line (in some cases NY6/CFP implications), bodes a home dog that has all the potential to be livelier than a bottle of lightning. When we consider the position of both participants, the pricing in this contest speaks vehemently into this.
Last week, we backed the Bulldogs on the money line to upset a ranked Auburn team in Starkville. Though the ‘Dogs were competitive against War Eagle in all four quarters, Mississippi State fell 24-10 against the Tigers and we were on the end of a ripped ticket. Despite Missouri and Auburn both having four losses, (Auburn has one more win), and though Mizzou is one week removed from being ranked, the Bulldogs are taking back a shorter tag this week. Why?
Our mission is to determine whether or not Mizzou’s price is an overreaction to last week’s result or a reflection of the market respect that Mississippi State gained. The former is more feasible than the latter. Last week, the Tigers were a 14-point underdog at home playing host to the Georgia Bulldogs.Georgia would whack the Tigers but the market will forgive this result since the Bulldogs are very much playing like the Georgia team that obtained a top-five ranking in the preseason. For Mizzou, this is anticipated to be a bounce-back opportunity to close out the season with a win against a team that has won just two games on the year. Mississippi’s two wins were a seasoning opening upset against an upset-prone LSU squad and a win against Vanderbilt who did not win a game in 2020.
Though they have lost three straight against Georgia, Mississippi, and Auburn, MSU has looked like a far better team against those three sides than their record would indicate. Nothing that we have read or seen this week suggest that the Bulldogs have mentally checked out. They appear to be determined and focused to finish out 2020 on a strong note.
On the flipside, we don’t know what Mizzou’s mindset will be coming into this fixture, as they had a prime opportunity last week to make a statement and were obliterated. That had to feel like a season-ending loss for the Tigers, thus motivation or lack thereof could play a big part of how the Tigers perform here. Mississippi State has been getting close each week to getting a win over a respectable foe. The price here strongly suggests that a breakthrough is coming today.
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MISSISSIPPI ST -1 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)