Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
Florida +17 over Alabama
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
SEC Championship Game
8:00 PM EST. What are we going to say about Alabama that hasn’t already been said? The Crimson Tide are the top team in the land, they are undefeated, and they have steamrolled everything they have come across. Alabama has covered in their last seven matches and over that span put up some absurd figures. The Tide have outscored the opposition 342-77, which is an average score of 49-11.
Nick Saban and Alabama are like a corporation that long ago ceased to be a mom-and-pop operation and became an international conglomerate, focused solely on acquiring assets and driving its stock price higher and higher and higher, with no clear ceiling in mind. Nothing but an endless demand for annual growth that won't cease until something catastrophic happens. There's no settling. There's no, "Hey, look at all this money! Let's go snorkeling." Watching Saban win a title is a grim reminder of all the fun shit you have to surgically remove from your life just to coach a team to a title: no vacations, no family time, no looking back, no drankin', no summer BBQ’s, no friends. No life. And if you have nothing else in your life except for winning, then we don't know what winning even means. Then there’s Florida. A team that has dropped two straight and that lost outright to a 24½-point underdog last week (LSU) in The Swamp.
Nick Saban is indeed a great coach. You know who else was a great coach? Phil Jackson when he had Shaq and Kobe and when he had Michael and Scotty. Tony Dungy when he had Peyton Manning in his prime. Bill Bellichick when he had Tom Brady for 20 years. Glen Sather was also a great coach when he had Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier.
Look, we’ve gone over this a million times. We have no idea what is going to happen in this game. Nobody does except Ben Burns and his “Breakfast Club” Game of the Year. What we know for sure is that there isn’t a football team on this planet whose stock is higher than Alabama’s right now. It would surprise us not if Alabama won 50-10 in much the same way it would not have surprised us if Buffalo beat Ball State last night by that same score. Buffalo was supposed to steamroll Ball State but they didn’t. We didn’t predict that Ball State would win or cover, we instead took the grossly inflated points and allowed the chips to fall where they may.
What we know for sure is that Alabama boat-racing its competition this year combined with Florida’s loss to LSU last week has created an overlay of mammoth proportions. Imagine, Florida goes from a 24½-point favorite against a team with pedigree to a 17-point underdog in the span of one week, which is a swing of over 40 points. This is very simply a case of going with the best of it once again and letting the chips fall where they may.
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Florida +17 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)