Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST
TEXAS STATE +165 over Arkansas State
Saturday, November 21st, 2020 –
Bobcat Stadium – San Marcos, TX
12:00 PM EST. This is a straight fade of Arkansas State, who represents the term a “false favorite” to a high degree and therefore should not be road chalk to a team that might be better than they are.
Arkansas State epitomises what we classify as the “false favorite” archetype. We have provided the definition previously of what this species looks like and we’ll go over it again to always be vigilant against "bad favorites." Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to lay significant points these days, especially in the less recently stabilized leagues like Conference USA and the Sun Belt. The bad-favorite archetype is a program that isn’t good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins.
Arkansas State has produced plenty of letdowns as the chalk this season, as they have been on the receiving end of two blowout losses at both Troy and Coastal Carolina. Arkansas State is a football team that lives and dies by offensive production, as its defense surrenders a 116th-ranked 38.6 points per game.
Texas State stands at just 1-9 on the year and has a regional following only. The market perception is that any 1-9 team is garbage and that may be true but because they are 1-9, we’re getting them with lots of equity. What that 1-9 record does not reveal is that the Bobcats could easily be 5-4 or 6-3, if a few bounces had gone their way. Barring their encounters with Appalachian State, BYU, and Troy, the Bobcats have pretty much been in every game they lost. The list includes South Alabama, UL Lafayette, Georgia Southern, UTSA (a double overtime loss), Boston College, and Southern Methodist. Focusing our attention on SMU and Boston College where the Cats were taking back over 20 points in both contests, T-State lost by an average of five points against both teams and they were in position to stage an upset. Most recently, the Bobcats took Georgia Southern the distance, as they fell narrowly to the Eagles by a score of 40-38 despite being priced as a double-digit pup at kick-off (+12½).
We have no idea what’s going to happen here but we are 100% sure that the Red Wolves are overpriced because of many factors that include misleading records, market perception and pedigree. That provides us with this opportunity to be taking back more points than we should be. Don’t forget to throw the Bobcats in some small money line parlays too.
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TEXAS STATE +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)