Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST
OHIO STATE -20½ over Indiana
Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH
Streaming: On most Fox channels
12:00 PM EST. It is a rare occasion when a team like the Buckeyes, Clemson or Alabama is in our wheelhouse but every now and then there comes a time where such a scenario bodes tremendous upside. This is one of those occasions.
The market has shown an enormous appetite in the build-up to this high-prole B1G conference bout. The Hoosiers come into this contest with all the eye candy that would enhance such affection from the market. IU sits inside the top-10, they are perfect on the year in both their straight-up record and their against the spread (ATS) record. They are also 8-2 against the number in their last 10 outings. In spite of all that, the Hoosiers are taking back more points here than they have been in any of the preceding 10 contests they have been a part of. This raises an enormous red flag considering that the Hoosiers stock is at its highest point in recent recollection. The first inclination is to take the 20½ points immediately before it comes down. That, my friends, is probably a mistake.
Think about it. When was the last time we saw the market fade Ohio State because the opponent seemed to be getting too many points? We cannot put our finger on such a time. The Buckeyes have turned its fellow B1G constituents into the 11 dwarves. Indiana is still very much one of Ohio State’s subordinates even if it appears to be a lot more formidable.
The Hoosiers have beat up upon what has turned out to be a bunch of dregs. Rarely, if ever has Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State all been this bad in the same season. All three of these teams have one win outside of matches yielded against each other (when Michigan State defeated Michigan). Penn State is 0-4, Michigan and Michigan State are both 1-3. If Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State were renamed Maryland, Illinois and Rutgers, the reaction to Indiana’s results and the subsequent for this game would be far different.
In two of these aforementioned wins against PSU and Michigan, Indiana was priced as a dog, and against Michigan State, the Hoosiers were spotting 7½ points to the Spartans but that was after the Spartans were smacked 49-7 by Iowa the week before.
Ohio State failed to cover a 37½-point line against Rutgers when they were last in action two weeks ago. They defeated the Scarlet Knights 49-27. However, we place little merit in that result since Ohio State slept-walked through the second half after it had the game well in hand (38-3 at the half). The Buckeyes also beat Penn State by a score of 38-25, which also doesn’t look impressive on paper but take note that Ohio State was toying with Penn State also. The Buckeyes led 31-13 going to the 4th quarter, thus pulling off the dogs and allowing PSU to cash in on two garbage time TD’s. Truth be told, OSU hasn’t broken a sweat yet. They have toyed with everyone but on paper it does not look that way. Now the oddsmakers are offering up massive points to a highly ranked team and they had to know that the points would entice people to a high degree. Indiana gets a reality check here because the line says so.
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OHIO STATE -20½ -107 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)