Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST
UCF +160 over Cincinnati
Bounce House – Orlando, FL
3:30 PM EST. We’re going to split this up and play one unit on the money line and one unit on the point-spread.
Not too long ago, the Golden Knights were considered one of the Group of Five’s alpha teams. We need not list their accolades and accomplishments, as UCF remains a storied program with a legacy of excellence. However, as is also demonstrated in the case of Ohio State this weekend, even teams with the prominence of Central Florida can offer equity. As situational bettors, this scenario speaks volumes into these circumstances.
In a typical situation, we would anticipate the market adoring the notion of the Golden Knights getting points in the fabled “Bounce House”. After all, there was also an era where Central Florida was paying out like a broken slot machine but they have long since regressed from being such a high-yield play. In fact, the Golden Knights have covered just once in their last six games and that leaves a sour taste in the market.
Cincinnati has all the makings of an AAC Champion and a formidable New Year’s Six contender if they don’t sneak into the playoffs. The Cincinnati offense has been prolific, scoring over 41 points per game (13th in the FBS), and their defense has been a brick wall, as they have surrendered just 12.4 points per match. We certainly appreciate the market appeal of the ‘Cats by virtue of these metrics alone and also given the manner in which they have yielded much of their victories. You see, the Bearcats have absolutely crushed the number for the last month, covering by 30, 32, 17 and 10½ points in their last four games. Crushing the number is not only understated, but it also resonates loudly.
The Golden Knights stand 5-2 on the year but the two losses were games that Central Florida could have easily won. UCF’s two defeats were a one-point loss against Memphis where the Golden Knights took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter and another blown lead against Tulsa, where once again the Knights led by as much as 18. The Golden Knights could easily be 7-0. Be that as it may, UCF is a team that has its sights set on performing at the highest level year-in and year-out. The Knights very simply have a culture of winning and they are not one to let the aforementioned setbacks derail them, even if perhaps a NY6 and conference title may be off the table.
In the end, UCF has lost the trust of this market in a big way while the Bearcats are a ranked power that looks to be spotting a soft price. When a ranked team team CRUSHES the number every week, there is no question that the inflated points keep rising until they don’t cover. If you bet Cincinnati this week, you may win but you would be going with the worst of it and getting on them four weeks too late. UCF plus the points is the prudent play in a game that they are worth a money line bet as well.
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UCF +160 over Cincinnati (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)