Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
TEXAS -10½ -103 over Baylor
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
Streaming: On ESPN in the Sports Group and TSN2 in the 3PM Kickoff/Soccer Group
3:30 PM EST. Aside from a 52-3 victory over UTEP to kick off the 2020 campaign where many were reluctant to lay 45 points with Texas, the Longhorns have been a market liability. In their second game of the year, the Longhorns were a 17-point choice on the road at Texas Tech and had to pull an incredible 14-point rally to force overtime and escape with a win. That was orchestrated against a team Tech squad that barely survived FCS Houston Baptist despite being favored by 40. This left the market with its first bitter taste. Texas would follow that up with an outright upset loss at home suffered against the visiting TCU Horned Frogs where Texas once again was laying a double-digit figure to the guests. Nevertheless, outside of the conspiracy theories, the result was yet another blemish on Texas’ performance portfolio.
The annual Red River Showdown in the Cotton Bowl with OU seemed like a safe bet for the market to chase the losses that UT incurred season-to-date, since they stepped in 7-1 ATS in the previous eight episodes of the Red River Rivalry (incidentally Texas was the underdog in all of these matches). As a three-point underdog, Texas would force extra time despite trailing by 14 but ultimately lose 53-45 in four overtimes. The result was the last straw for the market who is now jumping ship on the Longhorns here against a Baylor team that has been a profitable venture in this series as of late.
Baylor has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings between both parties. The Bears have covered the last two contests and also won the most recent meeting between both teams in 2019 when the Bears defeated Texas 24-17 in Waco as a 3½-point choice. When we insert the fact that the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Austin, Baylor seems like this week’s “dog of the week”. We read and hear all of the same things that you do. The market is extremely sour on the Longhorns and it’s for good reason. The market is not sour on Baylor and we can understand why. Despite the 1-3 record, Baylor has a nice looking résumé that includes a 26-14 loss to Georgia, an OT loss to West Virginia and another OT loss to Oklahoma. It is without question that the oddsmakers are taking a big “position” on Texas here. They are gambling and they’re gambling that if the double digits don;’t entice you, the hook on 10 surely will. This line is screaming at us that the oddsmakers LOVE the chalk. That has our full attention.
A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:
We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.
TEXAS -10½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)