Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST
TEXAS A&M +6 over Florida
Kyle Field – College Station, TX
Streaming: On ESPN in the Sports Group and also on TSN3 in the 3PM Kickoff/Soccer Group.
12:00 PM EST. Last week, Texas A&M was whacked before a national audience when it traveled to Tuscaloosa, Alabama and fell prey to the #2 Crimson Tide in a 52-24 rout. The Aggies were priced as an 18-point underdog but put on a display that suggested 18 points wasn’t enough. Combining that result with a preceding narrow 17-12 win while playing host to a pathetic Vanderbilt squad the week before as a 31½-point favorite, the stock in Texas A&M has fallen through the floor. Imagine being a 31½-point favorite and scoring 17 points.
What really garners our attention is the number that the Aggies are working with here against the #3 ranked team in the country. The Aggies, despite showing nothing remotely close in its performance portfolio to suggest it will be competitive in this bout, will not be granted a touchdown. So what would have happened had Texas A&M been remotely competitive against Alabama? Would they be taking back less than a field goal? Given the market perception on both these squads, the low-hanging fruit presents a huge red flag for getting behind the Gators.
Florida had much hype coming into the season. They were even being touted as the team that will usurp its arch-rival and biggest enemy, the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC East race and also as a potential playoff contender. We are not buyers into any of that rhetoric but the talking heads can skew market perception by simply sales-pitching Florida as the next big thing. In the buildup to this contest, almost all the “experts” decree that Texas A&M will be “Gator Bait”. However, the question remains as to who Florida has even beat or what they even did to warrant such respect?
Florida owns two wins this season over SEC constituents that failed to make a bowl game in 2019. In their victories against South Carolina and Mississippi, the “#3 and future SEC East Champ” did not look the least bit dominant despite the 16-point win against the Rebels and the 14-point win against the Gamecocks, as both teams hung with Florida and hung 59 points combined on its vaunted defense. Texas A&M is a step up in class when comparing them to the previous two sides in both offensive and defensive capability.
The market is tired of ripping up tickets on A&M and as a result, the Aggies bear the burden of proof. In other words, A&M has to prove to this market that they're better than what they've shown so far but said market is jumping off in droves, as they’re not going to wait around for them to do so. That’s the best time to jump in. Upset possibility in this one is high so throw A&M into a couple of money line parlays.
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TEXAS A&M +6 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)