Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:20 AM EST
Oklahoma -3 +102 over Texas
Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX
Streaming: On several Fox Sports channels in the Local Channels Group
12:00 PM EST. As promoters of buying low and selling high, there may not be a better time in recent history to back the Sooners, as their stock perhaps is at the lowest it hasn’t been since before Baker Mayfield came to Norman. Combining the diminished market perception of OU with the (useless) trends in this rivalry series all leaning towards the Longhorns, we can now buy the value.
Traditionally, Oklahoma is in many ways parallel to the Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio States of the world as they offer immense market appeal. As a rule of thumb, one can expect to pay a premium to get behind the Sooners, which is why on many occasions we steer clear of them. However, in the Red River Rivalry, Texas is very much akin to the Tide, Tigers, Buckeyes, and Sooners in market appeal so that premium has been removed.
What sticks out is that Texas has been a cash cow in this bitter feud as of late, going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in the previous eight meetings all of which saw the Hook Em’s priced as the underdog. Packaging this narrative with the prevailing storyline of Texas Head Coach Tom Herman being a “good bet” as an underdog overall, Texas can appear irresistible here, especially when we review Oklahoma’s résumé season-to-date.
A team that has ruled the Big 12 with an iron first under the captainship of two former Heisman Trophy winners (Mayfield and Kyler Murray) followed by a Heisman Finalist and National Champion in Jalen Hurts, the 2020 Sooners have seemingly taken a gigantic step backward. After making easy work of Missouri State in its season opener in a 49-0 rout, Oklahoma has lost its first two conference openers against both Kansas State and Iowa State. In both games, Oklahoma held leads and summarily fell apart in the fourth quarter. Against KSU, OU was favored by 28 and they opened up as a double-digit choice against Iowa State before closing as a 7½-point favorite after some “sophisticated” money bet the Cyclones down. No matter how you slice it, the losses simply don’t look good, especially considering that Kansas State and Iowa State were both upset at home this season against teams from the Sun Belt Conference.
Despite Oklahoma’s apparent fall from grace and all the trends working against them in this series, they are nonetheless still priced as the chalk in this contest. This resonates strongly with us, as it is a clear position that the ones behind the number expect the Sooners to respond here, despite an unconvincing body of work. Nevertheless, if Oklahoma had won and/or covered perhaps in just one of these two debacles it already suffered this season and/or Texas did not come back against Texas Tech two weeks ago, it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see the Sooners spotting a converted touchdown or more to the Longhorns here. As proprietors of the value business, we are now getting Oklahoma at a rare bargain price, and that prompts us to move in and take advantage.
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Oklahoma -3 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)