Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:20 AM EST
IOWA STATE -12 -110 over Texas Tech
Jack Trice Stadium – Ames, IA
Streaming: On several ABC channels in the Local Channels Group and also on TSN 1 in the 3PM Kickoff/Soccer group.
3:30 PM EST. Last week’s college football action was ripe with upsets. As an effect, we can expect the market to covet the underdog in many matchups this week, thus, the match-up between the Cyclones and Red Raiders speaks volumes into this perspective.
The Cyclones opened as high as a 13-point choice and very quickly the money poured in on the Red Raiders to where ISU is spotting less than its opening tag. That in itself equates to value. However, in taking a further look under the hood, we hoped to uncover exactly what it is that makes Texas Tech so appealing? Well there are a couple notable reasons that can be rationalized to justify a wager on the Wreck Ems, none of which carry any merit here.
First, the double-digits being offered make the Red Raiders look very appealing. Generally speaking, chasing the number thereafter, as the market extracts the perceived equity, further diminishes the chances of producing a winning ticket. Secondly, there is the prospect of Iowa State suffering a letdown after a hard-fought upset victory of Oklahoma last week in Ames. However, with the ‘Clones’ defeat of the Sooners, Iowa State is still priced where it is, with reason. We assure you that those that authored this line were not giving away any early Christmas presents, as the double-digit allotment suggests that there is little suspicion of a letdown on the horizon for the Cyclones. Perhaps the biggest selling point you will read on the Cyclones is that they are just 2-8 against the spread (ATS) as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2018. The Cyclones have lost two of their past three games as a double-digit favorite outright. That does not endear State to the market.
Texas Tech’s only win this season was a two-point victory where it had to hold its breath against a FCS opponent that it was favored to win by 40 against. Yes, Texas Tech took Texas the distance in their rivalry clash two weeks ago but the fact remains that the Wreck Em’s squandered a two-touchdown lead when the game was virtually in the bag.
On November 29, 2018, Matt Wells was hired by Texas Tech as head football coach, signing a six-year contract. Tech has five wins in 16 games under Wells and we have to wonder if he’s on the way out. The latest poor second-half showing from the Red Raiders in that aforementioned collapse versus Texas is systemic of a team that too often has trouble sustaining performance for four quarters. The display of discipline that produces too many penalties and mistakes is becoming the norm. More concerning is that the Red Raiders are getting beat up at the line of scrimmage and most troubling of all is the eroding chemistry on an increasingly dysfunctional staff. It is now up to Iowa State to recognize this Tech program for the house of cards that it is and bury them with a dominant performance. That’s where our money will be.
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IOWA STATE -12 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)