Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:20 AM EST
TCU -9½ -105 over Kansas State
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX
Streaming: On several Fox Sports channels in the Local Channels Group
4:00 PM EST. We’re not going to discuss the plight of TCU much because this wager has very little to do with them. TCU just happens to be K-State’s opponent this week. We would certainly not fade Kansas State blindly without checking out the opponent. In that regard, we can assure you that we checked out TCU and this one lines up right in our wheelhouse. The target here is the Wildcats and the attack against them is on.
Recency bias can be a funny thing. It can make a poor result disappear in the mist and entice market action because of just one positive result. In the case of Kansas State, it has two victories in 2020 that have wiped away the memory of a four-point loss to Arkansas State as a 15½-point favorite. The ‘Cats would emerge as a 28-point pooch in their follow up at Oklahoma two weeks later and do the unthinkable, staging a 21-point comeback in Norman in the fourth quarter to ultimately defeat the Sooners 38-35. That result was college football headlines and it also flipped the market perception of the Wildcats on its head. Their allure has only risen after the market expected a letdown in its follow-up as host to Texas Tech but K-State vanquished that notion. K-State opened at a notorious favorite friendly number of -3.5 but ended up closing as a mere 1-point-favorite; The ‘Cats would continue onto defeat the Red Raiders handily by a score of 31-21.
We often discuss betting a team too late. This week, the market very quickly took to the Wildcats, reinforced by a 4-1 ATS mark in its last five contests against TCU (where K-State staged two outright upsets over that span). To recap, K-State is coming off back-to-back wins over two Big-12 opponents, the former being the #3 ranked team in the country. Now the books are offering up 9½-points (!) to a team that has gained a ton of market credibility recently. Furthermore, TCU has played just two games and they have a 2-point win and a three-point loss. Put a massive red-flag beside Kansas State this week because it looks like the trap underdog of the week and recognizing it as such puts you in the advanced handicapper category. Swallow the points.
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TCU -9 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)