Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:20 AM EST
East Carolina +180 ML over SOUTH FLORIDA
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Streaming: We have no TV information at this time but if we find it, we’ll tweet it out.
7:00 PM EST. We played the East Carolina Dregs Pirates last week when it closed as a two-point favorite on the road against the Georgia State Panthers. Our rationale for getting behind East Carolina was that Georgia State was in prime position for a letdown after nearly upsetting a high-profile mid-major in UL-Lafayette in Atlanta two weeks prior. Furthermore, the Pirates hadn’t been priced in such a range in recent recollection, thus the spot and subsequent number associated warranted a play. East Carolina is rarely favored and are usually taking back anywhere between 14 and 30 points.
Georgia State would whack East Carolina 49-29. The Pirates were down big in the first quarter and even bigger at the half. In the first half of play, the Pirates were outscored 35-6 after an initial pick-six. ECU found itself behind 35-13 at halftime with an enormous hole to dig itself out of. The game was barely halfway through the first quarter when the market realized any tickets purchased on ECU was dead. We cannot overstate the sour taste it leaves in one’s mouth to be holding a dead ticket 7½ minutes into a football game. A common response to betting a team like ECU is equivalent to ripping up a ticket on the Jets. One could kick themselves for making such a bet and now the challenge is being able to pull the trigger again on a team that has zero credibility.
Last week, South Florida was a “sharp” play when it closed as a 22½-point underdog at Cincinnati. The “professional” money got paid when the Bulls fell 28-7 to produce a seeing-eye cover. Now combine that scenario with the ECU debacle last week and we have a true buy-low, sell-high opportunity to move in on.
There is such a thing as betting a team a week too late or a week too early. How many times have you wagered on a team that lost and then you laid off that same team the week after and they covered easily? It’s a common and understandable mistake that is very easy to commit. Every single person that gambles on sports has experienced that, as it is human nature to not trust a team that you just got burned by. It is especially hard to trust a bad team that just got blown away. The point is to not give up on ECU after a bad first half last week. The books had it right when they had ECU evenly priced against the Panthers. This week they got it wrong in that the Pirates should be favored over South Florida but that blowout loss resonated so strongly that we get East Carolina at tremendous value to win outright. Take the points if you like but we’re going for the outright win.
A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:
We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.
East Carolina +184 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.68)