Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:20 AM EST
NORTH TEXAS +125 ML over Charlotte
Apogee Stadium – Denton, TX
Streaming: On ESPN U in the Sports Group
8:00 PM EST. Last week, we faded North Texas when it was a short favorite (-1.5) at home to a team with one of the lowest stocks in the FBS (Southern Mississippi). It is now time to switch gears. You see, North Texas’ woes against the spread extends back to its efforts in the 2019 season. UNT has covered just twice in its last 11 outings and now we’re seeing the market jumping ship. We’ll go down with said ship because the time is right.
By contrast, the Niners have covered in six of their previous eight outings, dating back to 2019, thus now would be the perfect time to sell for more reasons than that. Small road favorites are risky business to begin with but a team like Charlotte has all the makings of being a “bad favorite”, as well. The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by a margin on the road.
In investigating the performance portfolio of Charlotte over its 6-2 ATS run, the 49ers were favored just twice, and covered just once. They are usually the underdog. In fact, straight up, the 49ers have just 12 wins over its last 30 games. Who were the two teams that Charlotte were favored over? UTEP by 11½ but had to come from behind to eke out a 28-21 win, and Old Dominion where Charlotte was a 10½-point choice and won by 16. However, being favored against UTEP or ODU is not saying much, as they are considered FBS bottom-feeders. North Texas on the other hand is a respected team in the Conference USA and perennially considered a contender for the Western Division credentials. The Mean Green has been a bit sloppy but make no mistake that the team and its coaches will be hugely insulted by this number. It’s bulletin board material to say the least. The Mean Green outright is the call.
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NORTH TEXAS +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)