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Posted at 10:30 AM EST

WEST VIRGINIA +100 over Baylor

Milan Puskar Stadium – Morgantown, WV

Streaming - On several ABC channels in the Local Channels Group. 

12:00 PM EST. There are two driving forces behind this play: the sell-high aspect of Baylor and the buy-low position of West Virginia. Last week, Baylor hosted Kansas. The Bears were 17-point chalk and summarily laid waste to the Jayhawks in a 47-14 rout of KU. The influential ideology in getting behind Baylor was to fade Kansas who got steamrolled by Coastal Carolina in its season opener. The Bears had not taken the field yet due to its season continuously being delayed by COVID-19 escalations, but nonetheless in its first outing, Baylor carried a lot of tickets to the window. This heightens their appeal here in their follow-up.

By contrast, West Virginia was responsible for a lot of ripped tickets last week. On the road against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Mountaineers were priced as high as an 8½-point underdog before they were hammered down to a closing figure of +5½. The big price drop reflects that the market hammered the Mountaineers and it did not work out well. Instead of jumping off, we now must jump on, as the market is putting way too much emphasis or giving Baylor way too much credit for its blowout win last week. That win was misleading, as the Bears outgained the Jayhawks by only 24 yards. Baylor benefited from two kick-return touchdowns and a safety in the game. West Virginia’s loss to Oklahoma State by 14 was also misleading as WVU but was better offensively. A long fumble return for a touchdown swung the game to the Cowboys' side. We're getting a merging sell-high spot on Baylor and a buy-low spot on WVU. If West Virginia had been more competitive against Oklahoma State (on paper) last week and/or Baylor struggled more with Kansas, we’d see the Mountaineers priced as a favorite here. One can see recency bias at full display here, as this price is the direct result on one week of football. WVU outright is the call.

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