Miami @ LOUISVILLE
Miami +107 over LOUISVILLE

Pinnacle +107 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +101 Coolbet +100

Posted at 10:30 AM EST

Miami +107 ML over Louisville 

Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, KY

Streaming subscribers: ABC in the Networks section

7:30 PM EST. One can read a million different write-ups about this prime-time showdown of ranked ACC foes, and each one will break down the X’s and O’s and try to pick a winner. That’s not our approach, never has been and never will be because nobody in the history of sports betting has been able to predict games that way and we’re not going to try and be the first.

Our goal is to try and find where the value lies and in that regard, we’re going to trust that it lies with “The U”. For one, a litany of useless trends have been adopted as rationale to back Louisville, which include the ‘Canes being 3-23 straight up (SU) away from home against ranked teams since 2005. Using something like that to form an opinion is absurd. How can a game from 10 years ago affect the outcome of today’s game yet the market buys this crap up like it’s fresh produce.

There is also mention of Miami being 8-14 SU in their past 22 games against Power Five opposition. While these narratives would inspire the market to get behind Louisville, it is Miami who actually bodes the upside here, as all this completely useless information/trends only enhance the value of the Hurricanes, not diminish them.

Then there is the “revenge angle”, which is another selling point in the market. According to the pick sellers, Louisville will absolutely be looking to atone for last year’s grisly 25-point loss in Miami. Referencing such material in many instances is very much like citing the irrelevant trends we have also outlined, as it can persuade the market to bet a team at a bad number based on speculation. Moreover, the revenge angle is no reason to back a side as that has been a constant culprit of ripped tickets. Why? Because the team that is prone to said vindication isn’t going to just let the avenger deliver the comeuppance because the market thinks they will.

The underdog-friendly number presented here would also suggest that Miami is the prudent play. The -2½ number is a notorious hook to lay the points, as it creates the illusion of an easy cover should UL win by a field goal. If you want to read about the changes in offense, defense, special teams, big games, QB’s coordinators and everything else, we can point you to a million places that all say the same thing with a few variances. We assure you that Miami is greatly improved with a stud offensive coordinator behind them and now we get them at a great price because of meaningless past records. Buy low before the market realizes that the “U” is back.

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Our Pick

Miami +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)