Pinnacle +6½ -110 Bet365 +6½ -110 SportsInteraction +6½ -110 5DIMES +6½ -110 888Sport +6½ -110

Posted at 11:00 PM EST. 

For NITRO subscribers - on ESPN in the CAN/USA Sports section.

UL Lafayette +6½ -110 over APP ST

Kidd Brewer Stadium – Boone, NC - Sun Belt Conference Championship Game

12:00 PM EST. It is a hard thing to beat the same team twice in a season. However, Appalachian State has served up crow to those that offered such advice in 2018 when App State defeated UL Lafayette 30-19 in the inaugural Sun Belt Conference Championship after defeating them 27-17 at home earlier that season. In 2019, the Mountaineers defeated the Ragin’ Cajuns in Lafayette in October on a Thursday Night prime-time game 17-7 and produced an upset priced as a +2½-point underdog. With the conference championship game returning to Boone, the Mountaineers look like a steal despite being priced at a notorious underdog-friendly number. Before pulling the trigger on what appears to be a cash grab, we urge backers to reconsider such a position.

There are several ingredients that have influenced the price here to the point of the Mountaineers being overvalued. The main ingredient is that App State has never lost to UL Lafayette in the seven times they have met since 2014. Last week, UL Lafayette suffered a scare at home when they slipped by arch nemesis UL Monroe in the Battle of the Bayou. Closing as a 20½-point choice, the Cajuns edged out the Warhawks 31-30. A lot of public action and interest lied with the Cajuns in the aforementioned bout and the fright lowered the market presence of ULL since UL-Monroe is not even bowl eligible. Nearly losing as a three-TD favorite one week, the market is running scared from the Ragin’ Cajuns.

Appalachian State has one win over an FBS opponent on the road (South Carolina) and three dominant wins against Sun Belt constituents since falling to Georgia Southern in their only defeat this season. Earlier this season, Appalachian State was garnered as the highest-ranked Sun Belt team in poll history before their defeat against the Eagles. As a result of the aforementioned results since the upset loss, Appalachian State is once again in position to perhaps attain that designation with a win here against UL-Lafayette. In fact, there is even an outside possibility that the Mountaineers may go to a New Year’s Six Bowl Game should Boise State and Memphis lose in their respective conference championships. There is also the possibility that App State is tired of just winning the conference and not given an opportunity to win something big.

Just to recap why you are going to pay inflated points on the chalk here: The Mountaineers beat the Cajuns in Boone last October as 25-point favorites, then again 30-19 as 17-point chalk in the first Sun Belt title game, then 17-7 in Lafayette this October as 1½-point underdogs. This year's regular-season meeting was the first time Appalachian State was an underdog in a Sun Belt game since 2014. This will be the eighth time these teams have met, all Mountaineers victories and the Cajuns have yet to hit 20 points or 370 yards in this series. We understand how difficult it is to pull the trigger on the underdog here but it is the right play to be sure, as the price says so and the underdog checks all the boxes of why upsets happen so frequently.

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