Pinnacle -8½ -103 Bet365 -8½ -110 SportsInteraction -8½ -110 5DIMES -8½ -110 888Sport -8½ -110

Posted at 11:00 PM EST. 

For NITRO subscribers - on multiple ABC affiliates in the Networks section.

Oklahoma -8½ -103 over Baylor AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX - Big 12 Championship Game

12:00 PM EST. When two teams have a rematch in any given sport, a common practice that many handicappers will employ to find value is looking for a “soft” number compared to the final score in the previous game. For example, a team getting blown out taking back a smaller tag in their follow-up is a great way to locate a “sucker bet”. The market would likely eat up the favorite in the aforementioned spot, as said favorite would look like a cash grab with a shorter line to cover. In the case of Baylor and Oklahoma, the same ingredients apply but instead the opposite holds true, as the underdog looks like a guaranteed winner taking back a touchdown more than the final score of when these two sides last met very recently in mid-November where a field goal separated the two sides.

When the Bears hosted the Sooners in Waco on November 16th, Baylor came into the clash as a -10½-point home underdog and they played like a 21-point favorite when they jumped out to a 28-3 lead over the Sooners. Then, Jaylen Hurts would do Jaylen Hurts type of things and lead a heroic comeback, enabling the Sooners to escape with a 34-31 win. Since that day, Baylor, to their credit, has steamrolled everything it has come across outscoring both Texas and Kansas by a margin of 85-16 and going 2-0 ATS while doing so. Meanwhile, Oklahoma crept by TCU in a 28-24 thriller in their follow-up before offering up one of their better outings this season against Oklahoma State to close out their campaign with a 34-16 triumph. As a result, the stock on Baylor remains through the ceiling furthered by a 7-2 ATS record over their last nine matches. Oklahoma, though they have the same straight-up record and a win over the Bears head-up have a far lower stock, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight matches. Thanks to all of the above, this may be one of the best times ever to lay points with the Sooners.

Normally, we would expect the masses to be all over Oklahoma. After all, the Sooners are a public team, a historic program with a pedigree, and they are the four-time defending Big 12 Champions. However, the market has flooded the Bears to the point of grabbing our attention. The price on Oklahoma has been dropping all morning so if you took Baylor as early as yesterday, you’re going to beat the closing line. When an underdog is attracting this much market attention, it usually ends up being one of the worst bets of the weekend. We urge those that bought at +9 to sell it back at -8½ or even -8 but that’s your call.

Sure, Oklahoma only edged out the Bears by a field goal in Waco but they also outscored the Bears 31-3 after addressing all the miscues and mistakes they committed in the early stages of the game. Once the Sooner Schooner got rolling, there was nothing Baylor could do to stop it. A master of winning conference titles equipped with experience navigating this phase of the college football season as a whole, Coach Lincoln Riley and his quarterback Jalen Hurts know better than anyone how to prepare for games of this magnitude. Baylor is more prone to get caught up in the moment and suffer a letdown. Very simply, we are getting the better team with more tangible experience at a reduced price and for that we will move in every time.

----------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here