Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle +28½ -105 Bet365 +28½ -110 SportsInteraction +28½ -110 5DIMES +28½ -110 888Sport +28½ -110
Posted at 11:00 PM EST.
For NITRO subscribers - on multiple ABC affiliates in the Networks section.
Virginia +28½ -105 over Clemson
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC - ACC Championship Game
7:30 PM EST. We need not provide a preface as to who Clemson is and what they have done. They are the face of college football and they steamroll opponents. While we would be the first to recognize Dabo Swinney and his seamless blueprint which gets his teams to play at a consistent high-level and excel in the postseason, we would be remiss to not call the amount of points to the Cavaliers here as outright insulting.
The Coastal Division Champion Virginia Cavaliers see themselves taking back their biggest allotment of points season-to-date and they are effectively priced in the same range against this outfit as South Carolina (+27½) who Clemson whacked last week 38-3 and Syracuse (+28), Florida State (+26½) and North Carolina (+26½) who Clemson earned wins against earlier this season. Against FSU, Clemson was academic and crushed the Noles 45-14. The same happened when Clemson visited ‘Cuse and obliterated them 41-6 in mid-September. Clemson’s only scare transpired against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in late September when a failed two-point conversion allowed Clemson to escape with a 21-20 victory. That said, it would be unreasonable to expect any team to play at a high level every single game so the UNC scare means jack.
Virginia is essentially priced in the same range as the aforementioned teams. We must annotate that of these four teams, only one was able to produce a bowl berth (North Carolina) and that came last week when it earned its sixth win against N.C. State who also will not be going to the postseason. However, UVA is a much better team comparatively, as they come in off a monumental win against cross-state rival Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Cup. It is also worth mentioning that the Hokies were ranked at the time of the UVA victory. While many will revel in Clemson’s balance on both sides of the football and their ability to do so impeccably, Virginia has a recipe to stymie a Tiger rout at minimum. The Cavaliers are one of the best teams in the country in ball control, as they sit seventh in the FBS in time of possession (33:27 minutes per game) while keeping their defense on the field for just 26:32 minutes per game (10th in America). This is an advantage that the Cavs own over the Tigers who sit 35th in offensive time on field with 31:18 minutes per game. Should Quarterback Bryce Perkins bring his A-Game and showcase his skill set as a dual-threat quarterback, Virginia’s defense will have a low pitch count. The Hoos strategy here has to be to play keep away, which will certainly make it harder for Clemson to cover this lofty figure. On the flip-side, should Clemson build a large lead there is tremendous backdoor potential, as there is little question Dabo will pull his players once the game is well in hand to prevent exposing them to injuries in preparation for their title defense in the CFP. Look it, we have no idea whether or not the Hoos will come in under this number but know damn sure that of all the teams and games today, there is not a more inflated price than this one and spotting the points is going with the “worst of it” on every level.
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Our Pick
Virginia +28½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)