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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

Middle Tennessee +10 over WESTERN KENTUCKY

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium – Bowling Green, KY

2:00 PM EST. A theme of this week’s festivities will be teams treating a rivalry contest as their bowl game. For the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State, the 2019 edition of “100 Miles of Hate” will be just that. MTSU comes into this game with seven losses on the season and thus cannot qualify for a bowl game. Contrarily, their counterparts Western Kentucky step into this affair with a sparkling 7-4 SU record on the year, which means that the Hilltoppers will have one more contest to play after this affair.

One will pay a premium to get behind the host here for several reasons. For one, WKU has been red-hot against the spread covering in seven of their last eight contests. Secondly, the ‘Toppers have also won six of their last eight match-ups straight up as well while producing three outright upsets when WKU was priced as a mid-range underdog (+3½ versus UAB on September 28th, +5 against Army on October 12th, and most recently against USM on the road last week when WKU was priced as a three-point pooch). From a combination of money line plays and point spread propositions that have cashed in on a weekly basis, the Hilltoppers have been producing gold and now one will pay through the roof to get behind them here. 

Middle Tennessee State was in action last week at home against Old Dominion and the Blue Raiders torched the Monarchs 38-17 to cover easy as a -13½-point choice. Color the market unimpressed by last week’s win, as that same market will not let MTSU off the hook for its two preceding results that removed the Blue Raiders from a possible bowl berth. First, Middle Tennessee State was defeated on the road handily by Charlotte on November 2nd, losing 34-20 despite being favored by five points. The Blue Raiders would follow that up with their worst effort of the season when they were defeated 31-28 on November 16th in Murfreesboro to a winless Rice team. MTSU was favored by 13 points and a popular choice due to their reputation for being a stalwart on its own field. However, the Blue Raiders laid a massive egg and destroyed whatever little credibility they had. It’s hard to ignore losing to Rice. 

On the year, MTSU is winless on the road. That narrative that will also influence the market, as the Blue Raiders will be characterized as a listless bunch that have no shot at taking it to Western Kentucky since they are away from home. We wouldn’t be so quick to make that assumption. Western Kentucky has only played .500 football at home this season (3-3 SU) and one of those losses came against FCS Central Arkansas to begin their campaign. Against Central Arkansas, WKU was a -10½-point favorite and they fell 35-28. Eerily enough the Hilltoppers are priced in a similar range here, suggesting that the market may be adept to the possibility of some chaos. MTSU situationally comes into this game with the opportunity to do just that, as they will be “free-rolling”. In essence, Middle Tennessee State will have nothing to lose here and will approach this rivalry game with reckless abandon. These kinds of underdogs are especially dangerous to fade and now we get them taking them back an inflated number due to their diminished market presence and credibility. It wouldn’t be strange by any means if the Blue Raiders were to assail their adversaries and win 100 Miles of Hate outright but we’ll stick with the points here and see you at the cashier’s window afterward.

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