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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

COLORADO ST +14 over Boise St

Sonny Lubrick Field at Canvas Stadium – Fort Collins, CO

3:30 PM EST. Like many other teams within the Mountain West Conference, the Rams of Colorado State have been picked on by the Broncos in this series. In fact, Colorado State has never defeated Boise State since the Broncos joined the MWC in 2011. Furthermore, the Rams have never covered on their own field against the Broncos. Combining these anecdotes with Boise’s 6-2 ATS record in the eight matches between these two programs, it is no wonder that the Smurfs are being heavily backed here. 

Before we further break down the spot that is disadvantageous to play the Broncos, BSU’s pedigree and iron fist against CSU will place them in position to be overvalued. Moreover, playing the Broncos at the present asking price will subject bettors to playing Boise State at a bad number. Since this market opened, money has poured in on the Broncos and has pushed the line upward by 1½ points. If one spotted points with Boise at the initial opening price of -12.5, one would require the Broncos to win by two touchdowns to get to the window. Now as a result of the move, Boise is being asked  to win by more than two converted touchdowns just to push. Wagering into this swerve in itself is a bad practice, regardless of how good Boise State may appear to be or how dismal the Rams may seem.

This spot is not a favorable one either for the Broncs. While we would not be quick to accuse the Broncos of looking ahead normally, we cannot help but imagine that to be the case here. The Broncos will be playing for a Mountain West Conference Championship next Saturday when it hosts the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. That game is set. If Boise beats Hawaii, they may very well find themselves in position to earn a New Year’s Six Bowl Bid. If one knows the history of Boise State, they are known as the archetypal BCS Buster that never lost a game in the now defunct BCS bowl series. There is little question that Boise has its sights set on such a prize again in the NY6 and thus, the Broncos maybe a bit preoccupied scoreboard watching, as the two mid-major teams ahead of them in the College Football Playoff rankings (Memphis and Cincinnati) will be playing at the same time as the Broncos. The phenomenon of scoreboard watching is real, as some teams are nearly as attuned to the results of other games as they are their own. There are a few opportunities to apply this concept in the final week of the regular season and this is one of them. 

Boise State hosted the MWC Championship last year but fell in overtime to visiting Fresno State. The focus and distraction of atoning for last year’s letdown is also something that can take Boise State’s eye off the ball against a team it expects to have its way with. Because they lost last year’s championship game, they’re mindset this week will likely be that they don’t want to overdo it against a team they’re supposed to beat in a meaningless game. 

Meanwhile, Colorado State cannot make a bowl game this year with seven losses. This now becomes Colorado State’s bowl game and we would also wager that Fort Collins will be rocking. The atmosphere will be nothing short of a championship-level environment in terms of animation. The intangibles not only set up Colorado State to scare Boise State but perhaps even power the Rams to do the unthinkable. Whether one wants to believe it or not, upset potential in this game is significant. Be that as it may, we have plenty of points to work with, not to mention the ability to come in through the back door should that scenario arise. The Rams are a great situational play that are also taking back inflated points.

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