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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

Cincinnati +13 over MEMPHIS

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium – Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST. Evaluating market credibility is something we stress in our handicapping approach. Determining a recency bias is a part of that methodology, both of which are working against the chalk here, as the Tigers head into another high-profile contest that will be of national interest. Three weeks ago, Memphis were the hosts to a match of similar gravity when it hosted a then undefeated SMU Mustangs under the bright lights in Music City in a match that was the national game of the week. While the Cincy-Memphis clash may not have as big of a draw compared to some of the games featured on the weekend menu, this contest will undoubtedly be the most scrutinized fixture on Black Friday. After all, American Athletic Conference title and/or New Year’s Six Bowl implications are on the line for both teams. Given how Memphis fared in their last stint under the national microscope in their win against SMU, the money has poured in on the Tigers and the cash has not looked back. Moreover, since the aforementioned 54-48 victory over SMU which earned the Tigers a razor-thin cover as a 5½-point choice, the Tigers have obliterated everything it has come across since then. Since their victory over the Mustangs, Memphis has won and covered on the road against both Houston and USF winning by an average of 28½ points. Combine that with Memphis’ near flawless home record (its one loss this season was a narrow 30-28 defeat at Temple which was marred by controversy) and the Tigers are getting a little too much market credibility here.  

Though Cincinnati enters into this matchup with an equal record to their counterparts, it seems as if the Bearcats are being cast as inferior to the Tigers. This is largely in part to Cincinnati’s résumé being less reputable by comparison to Memphis. To begin, Cincinnati’s one loss this season was at Ohio State. While the market may be quick to forgive the result given the fact the defeat was attained against the top-team in America, the manner in which Cincy lost shattered any notion. The Bearcats didn’t lose gracefully but were instead steamrolled in a 42-0 shutout. Secondly, Cincinnati has recently shown a penchant for playing down to its opposition. The Bearcats won three of its last four games by no more than a field goal against the likes of Temple, USF, and ECU. This unconvincing body of work has resulted in many ripped tickets, as Cincy failed to cover in any of those matches and have only covered once in their last five games. The Bearcats stock has been dipping for three weeks and counting. Finally, and perhaps most telling of all, Memphis has won the last three matches between both parties. All three of these victories were by margins of 13 points or greater which is lower than today’s price. Incidentally, Memphis has not played Cincinnati since 2016, so the streak is irrelevant, as we are dealing with two completely different teams but the market will use this useless trend to pay even more to back the favorite. 

The Tigers offense is scoring over 42 points per game, which is another great selling point for the masses in America that will be wagering and watching college football games on this Black Friday. Thing is, this is not USF or Houston. Cincinnati’s defense is ruthless, averaging 19.9 points per game (23rd nationally). When you combine the defensive acumen of Cincinnati with their rushing attack that accrues 197.3 yards per game (34th in America), the Bearcats can impose their will upon the Tigers who live and die by their offense. After Memphis’ defense gives up over 166 rushing yards per game and that does not spell well for the Tigers whose defense may build up a high pitch count and get exposed. Cincinnati has the recipe to stage an upset but we’ll help ourselves to the hearty helping of leftovers along with these tasty points. This is a massive overlay. 

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