Pinnacle -3½ -109 Bet365 -3½ -110 SportsInteraction -3½ -110 5DIMES -3½ -110 888Sport -3½ -110

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

#117 Ball State -3½ -109 over KENT ST

Dix Stadium – Kent, OH

12:00 PM EST. Last week, many declared the Buffalo Bulls the “lock of the century” when they closed as a -5½ to -6-point favorite (depending on when and where you bet them) against the Golden Flashes. Kent State not only covered but they won outright. Despite the impressive showing by Kent State last week, the market is reluctant to buy into the verity of last week’s result, as the Golden Flashes find themselves priced at a notoriously favorite-friendly number compared to being positioned at an infamous underdog-conducive figure against Buffalo.

The Cardinals find themselves spotting three-points plus the hook and we have said countless times that this number is designed to entice backers to take Kent State under the guise of the Golden Flashes still producing a profit should they fall by a field goal. However, it likely won’t come to that. We would be remiss if we didn’t say it again that “when ye zig, we shall zag”.

The Cards are not exactly swooping into this game in good form, losing their last three contests in MAC play after winning their first three. The Cards stock is low while the Flashes stock is on the rise. From September 21st to October 19th, Ball State covered in four straight. Since then, BSU has covered just once so now would be the time to get behind them at a deflated price. Situationally, this spot has all the markings for the Cardinals to thrive.

Last week against Buffalo, the Golden Flashes scored 24 points in the final quarter of play to overcome a 21-point deficit and stage the upset. Emotional wins such as these very often take a toll on college football teams like Kent State, as we are dealing with student athletes, not professionals. The vulnerability to come in flat is heightened, which makes Kent especially dangerous to back considering Ball State will be all the more motivated, as they will see this as a winnable game to get back on track toward bowl eligibility. It’s also worth noting that Ball State laid waste to this very team a year ago in Muncie in a 52-24 drubbing. Knowing that they destroyed the Flashes gives the Cardinals that added emotional edge too.

Finally, Ball State bodes the 29th-ranked rushing attack in America by averaging 204.8 yards on the ground per game and they are up against one of the worst teams in the country in defending the rush as Kent State gives up a leaky 255 rushing yards per contest (128th in the FBS). While we are not one for X’s and O’s, this narrative is significant, as the “pitch count” is very high on defenses this time of year that get run over and that can’t get off the field. Ball State can throw its weight around against this Kent State team, impose its will, and neutralize whatever home cooking Kent has in a flash (pun intended). With the potential hazard that accompanies Kent State after such an emotional win, the Golden Flashes can find whatever spark they have put out quick and we get the chance to back a short-priced favorite in position to orchestrate another blowout. You can sign us up for that every time.

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