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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

#178 BAYLOR -5 -110 over Texas 

McLane Stadium – Waco, TX

Nitro Subscribers: On several Fox Sports stations in the Networks Group

3:30 PM EST. Some have pegged this game as a letdown spot for the Bears after Baylor suffered a horrific loss at home last week when it hosted the big dog of the Big 12, the Oklahoma Sooners. The Bears led by as much as 25 before Jalen Hurts led a storied comeback that kept Oklahoma’s glimmering College Football Playoff hopes alive. These same individuals also argue that Baylor’s defense must be “gassed” from their tussle with Oklahoma and Texas should have an easy time putting up points against BU. However, locking horns with the best offense in the country is a tall order for any team. What these experts are quick to forget is that Baylor caused three turnovers in their match-up against Oklahoma. In fact, Baylor could have benefitted from even more takeaways, as they caused three more fumbles which were recovered by OU. Had even one of these additional fumbles fell into Baylor’s hands, perhaps we would be talking about an undefeated Baylor team and that discussion would offer an entirely different connotation. Nevertheless, somewhere along the line, momentum shifted in an instant and it was evident that the Bears could not get it back.

We’ve seen some publications bill this as a match-up of Texas’ explosive offense against Baylor’s “tired” defense. What about Baylor’s offense against Texas’ defense? This seems like a truly greater mismatch. After all, Baylor’s offense scores a 29th-ranked 34.9 points per contest and they are up against a Texas defense that gives up just under 30 points per game. Moreover, the Burnt Orange have one of the worst secondaries in America, as they give up a 126th-ranked 305 yards through the air per match. For a quarterback like Baylor’s Charlie Brewer, this is a fantastic match-up for him to exploit and to get ever closer to the prestigious 3,000-yard mark for the year. However, the narrative of Texas having a small chance of making the Big 12 title game if it wins out is all that is recycled in the build-up. Such rhetoric can often lead bettors to back the wrong team as the “must-win” angle continues to destroy bankrolls. Now think about this for a minute: if Texas is not ready to give up on its Big 12 hopes with three conference losses, why on Earth would Baylor, who has just a field goal-loss to the juggernaut of the conference?

Texas’ four-game win streak against Baylor has been cited as a rationale to get on board with Bevo and friends in this match-up. If Texas covers it won’t be because they beat them four years ago. These stupid and useless trends continue to influence the market because they need something to support their choice. We’ve seen more than one pick-seller suggest that Baylor will only be showing up in body and not spirit but we argue the opposite. Baylor coach Matt Rhule is steadily remaking the flash of the Art Briles era into one of the tougher, more physical teams in the Big 12. But he's also getting outstanding quarterback and receiver play, and that makes Baylor a threat to score in bunches. Interim coach Jim Grobe cleaned up quite a bit of the mess and discord from Briles' ouster in 2016 and deserves a lot of credit for leaving a shattered program in a lot better shape than he found it and facilitating the Bears' quick rise under Rhule. If Baylor wins out they are guaranteed another shot at Oklahoma and they get the opportunity to establish itself as the football power in the Lone Star State here while doing so. Those incentives are enough for Baylor to bring their A-Game and should they, the Eyes of Texas will not be upon you but instead they will be black and blue. Swallow the points.

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