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Posted at 1:45 PM EST. 

GEORGIA TECH -101 over N.C. State

Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field – Atlanta, GA

8:00 PM EST. One may look at this line initially and ask “why on Earth is Tech favored?”. After all, the Yellow Jackets were the same team that lost at home earlier this season to The Citadel in overtime when they were priced as a 27-point favorite. Though this result is ancient history at this point, it is without question that outcome is still having an impact on the market months later. The Citadel loss has apparently disqualified GT from ever being the chalk again. It is worth annotating that this is the first time that Georgia Tech will be a favorite since that turbulent day in September. This immediately grabbed our attention. Furthermore, the market response vis-a-vie the smothering of N.C. State as the dog has led us to believe that though Tech may appear overpriced, the underdog has too much appeal here and that’s a massive red flag to be aware of. Two days ago, Tech was -2½. If you took State two days ago, you’re going to beat the closing line. Good luck with that.

Georgia Tech was absolutely obliterated last week by Virginia Tech when it hosted the Hokies and were shutout 45-0 despite closing as a six-point underdog. There is also little doubt that this one result has further dashed Georgia Tech’s market credibility more than NC State’s present four-game lose and fail-to-cover streak. Why is this? Because two of the aforementioned Wolf Pack defeats came against Clemson and Wake Forest, one of whom needs no introduction and the other a team that was very much regarded by many as the #2 team in the ACC up until a couple weeks ago.

We’re not going to sugarcoat this in any way. Tech is a bunch of dregs that look awful and are awful. The price on Tech here makes them almost unplayable but we also know that when something looks too good, the opposite happens. Aside from the Thursday Night NFL game, this is a stand alone college game. The man on the street will look at this line and think “jackpot”. Every teaser and parlay will include the Wolf Pack. Hell, if we owned a sportsbook, we would not be comfortable knowing that we are exposed in a game that needs Tech to win. The books were 100% sure where the money was going to go for this one. Tech is 0-5 ATS spread at home. They’re 2-8 overall with one of those victories being a 14-10 home win over South Florida. The Jackets were a -5 point favorite in that game. Tech’s other win came against Miami, where the ‘Canes were an 18-point favorite and forgot to show up. Tech has zero market credibility, a weak squad and no covers at home and now they’re favored because why? Recognizing something that doesn’t smell right is another process we go through every day and this one absolutely, 100% fits the bill. If State wins by 28 we would not be surprised one bit because they’re supposed to win by 28. However, we would be less surprised if Tech wins going away because this line says that’s precisely what’s going to happen.

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